梅里·馬達沙希｜冰融北極：地緣政治競爭與全球秩序的脆弱性

IPP評論是國家高端智庫華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平臺。

導語：當?shù)貢r間2月22日，美國總統(tǒng)特朗普在社交媒體上表示，他將與路易斯安那州州長杰夫·蘭德里合作，向格陵蘭島派遣一艘醫(yī)院船，為當?shù)亍霸S多生病卻未得到妥善照顧的人”提供醫(yī)療服務(wù)。對此，格陵蘭島自治政府總理延斯-弗雷德里克·尼爾森22日對此表示拒絕。此前，特朗普多次宣稱不排除以“軍事或經(jīng)濟脅迫”手段獲取格陵蘭島的可能性。上個月，特朗普在與北約秘書長呂特達成所謂的“框架協(xié)議”后，排除了使用武力奪取格陵蘭島的可能性。

IPP榮譽教授梅里·馬達沙希認為，由于人類活動導致的氣候變暖，包括格陵蘭島在內(nèi)北極地區(qū)不僅正經(jīng)歷著前所未有的環(huán)境與地貌變化，也在迅速轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐粋€充滿地緣政治、經(jīng)濟與軍事競爭的關(guān)鍵區(qū)域。隨著各國在此紛紛展開戰(zhàn)略布局，北極正在成為全球風險的“放大器”。馬達沙希教授認為，北極的融化不僅是一場區(qū)域性環(huán)境轉(zhuǎn)變，更是對人類能否調(diào)和權(quán)力政治與生態(tài)極限的考驗。其治理方式將深刻反映正在形成的世界秩序的本質(zhì)，并關(guān)乎全球穩(wěn)定。

2月22日，特朗普在社交媒體發(fā)文稱，他將派一艘滿載醫(yī)療用品的船前往該島，并聲稱島上“許多人”生病了，“沒有得到照顧”。圖：Truth Social

梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽教授、聯(lián)合國教科文組織下屬國際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心（ICCSD）顧問委員會成員

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; Member of the Advisory Committee of the International Center for Creativity and Sustainable Development under the auspicious of UNESO (ICCSD).

正文

The Melting Arctic: Geopolitical Rivalries, andFragility of Global Order

冰融北極：地緣政治競爭與全球秩序的脆弱性

引言

Introduction

在成為地緣政治博弈的舞臺之前，北極長期以來一直是地球生命體系的重要穩(wěn)定器。其廣袤的冰蓋將太陽輻射反射回太空，從而調(diào)節(jié)全球氣溫；其寒冷的海水幫助維持溫鹽環(huán)流，影響跨洲際的天氣系統(tǒng)；其永久凍土層則封存著數(shù)千年來積累的大量碳儲量。

Long before it became a theatre of geopolitical calculation, the Arctic was a stabilizer of life on Earth. Its vast ice sheets reflect solar radiation back into space, moderating global temperatures. Its cold waters help regulate thermohaline circulation, influencing weather systems across continents. Its permafrost has locked away immense quantities of carbon accumulated over millennia.

從歷史上看，這一地區(qū)深刻塑造了大氣平衡、海平面變化以及生物多樣性的格局。原住民社會適應(yīng)了其嚴酷卻相對穩(wěn)定的自然節(jié)律。全球氣候的整體均衡，在一定程度上依賴于其冰凍狀態(tài)的持續(xù)存在。

Historically, the region has shaped atmospheric balance, sea levels, and biodiversity patterns. Indigenous communities adapted to its harsh but stable rhythms. Global climatic equilibrium depended, in part, on its frozen continuity.

如今，這種穩(wěn)定性正在消蝕。加速融冰、氣溫上升與生態(tài)系統(tǒng)紊亂，正以前所未有的速度改變這一脆弱環(huán)境。所謂“北極放大效應(yīng)”——即該地區(qū)升溫速度超過全球平均水平兩倍以上的現(xiàn)象——正在削弱冰雪反照率效應(yīng)，加速永久凍土解凍，并破壞生態(tài)系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定。隨著冰層消退，深色海面吸收更多熱量；解凍土壤釋放出甲烷和二氧化碳；大量淡水流入改變海洋鹽度與環(huán)流結(jié)構(gòu)。

Today, that stability is eroding. Accelerated ice melt, rising temperatures, and ecological disruption are transforming this fragile environment at an unprecedented pace. Arctic amplification, the phenomenon by which the region warms at more than twice the global average- is disrupting ice albedo effects, accelerating permafrost thaw, and destabilizing ecosystems. As ice disappears, darker ocean surfaces absorb more heat. Methane and carbon dioxide are released from thawing soils. Freshwater influx alters ocean salinity and circulation.

海冰在地球能量收支中的作用。在高反照率情況下，雪面能反射85-90%的太陽輻射，使下方保持寒冷；在低反照率下，海洋表面僅反射約10%的光線而吸收大部分熱量，導致海水變暖。（圖源： Meereisportal）

這些變化并非單純自然周期所致，而是與人類活動引發(fā)的全球變暖、工業(yè)擴張以及長期氣候治理不足密切相關(guān)。北極，這一曾被視為遙遠而冰封的邊緣地帶，已迅速成為21世紀最具深遠影響的地區(qū)之一。

These changes are not the result of natural cycles alone. They are closely linked to human-induced global warming, industrial expansion, and decades of insufficient climate governance.The Arctic, once perceived as a distant and frozen periphery, has rapidly emerged as one of the most consequential regions of the twenty-first century.

當下北極所發(fā)生的一切，折射出更為深層的地球治理危機，也揭示出國際秩序日益加劇的緊張與失衡。隨著冰層退縮、空間開放，主要大國正迅速行動，力圖鞏固戰(zhàn)略位置、獲取經(jīng)濟優(yōu)勢并建立安全支點。美國、俄羅斯、中國、歐洲國家以及加拿大，不僅越來越多地將這一地區(qū)視為環(huán)境前沿，更視其為影響力擴展、競爭博弈乃至潛在對抗的戰(zhàn)場。

What is unfolding in the Arctic today reflects a deeper crisis of planetary stewardship. It also reveals a growing crisis of international order. As ice retreats and new spaces open, major powers are moving rapidly to secure strategic positions, economic advantages, and security footholds. The United States, Russia, China, European states, and Canada increasingly view the region not only as an environmental frontier, but as a zone of influence, competition, and potential confrontation.

因此，北極變化不能被理解為一次孤立的環(huán)境事件，而是全球數(shù)十年來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式與政治抉擇累積演變的結(jié)果。不作為、短期主義思維以及薄弱的國際協(xié)調(diào)，使這一地區(qū)的氣候風險在不斷積聚，其上升速度已遠遠超過現(xiàn)有治理機制所能有效回應(yīng)的能力。

The transformation of the Arctic, therefore, cannot be understood as an isolated environmental event. It is the cumulative outcome of economic models and political choices made over decades across the world. Inaction, short-termism, and weak international coordination have allowed climate risks to accumulate faster than governance mechanisms could respond in this region.

隨著冰層消退，曾經(jīng)難以進入的區(qū)域正日益向人類活動開放。新的海上航道有望縮短主要市場之間的運輸距離。豐富的油氣資源、稀土元素以及戰(zhàn)略性礦產(chǎn)儲量，正吸引著商業(yè)資本與政治力量的關(guān)注。旅游業(yè)、漁業(yè)以及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)也開始向這些生態(tài)脆弱地帶延伸。

As ice retreats, previously inaccessible spaces are becoming increasingly open to human activity. New maritime routes promise shorter connections between major markets. Vast reserves of hydrocarbons, rare earth elements, and strategic minerals are attracting commercial and political interest. Tourism, fisheries, and infrastructure development are expanding into fragile zones.

因此，氣候變化所帶來的結(jié)果具有某種悖論性：它不僅造成了環(huán)境損失，也開辟了新的經(jīng)濟與軍事布局空間。港口、機場、衛(wèi)星設(shè)施和監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)正在擴建或升級；海軍部署與聯(lián)合演習日益增多；各國的戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想也在根據(jù)北極現(xiàn)實不斷調(diào)整。

What climate change has, therefore, produced, paradoxically, is not only environmental loss, but also new arenas for economic and military positioning. Ports, airfields, satellite facilities, and surveillance systems are being expanded or modernized. Naval deployments and joint exercises are increasing. Strategic doctrines are being adjusted to Arctic realities.

二、氣候變遷與戰(zhàn)略重構(gòu)

II. Climate Transformation and Strategic Repositioning

隨著北極升溫持續(xù)加速，氣候變化已不再僅僅被視為環(huán)境議題，而是日益被納入國家安全戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃之中。

As Arctic warming accelerates, climate change is no longer treated merely as an environmental issue, but has increasingly become embedded in national security planning.

北約態(tài)勢的演進、俄羅斯對其北部邊疆的安全化處理、中國不斷擴展的科研與后勤布局，以及各類相互競爭的經(jīng)濟項目，正在重塑該地區(qū)的力量格局。

NATO’s evolving posture, Russia’s securitization of its northern frontier, China’s expanding scientific and logistical presence, and competing economic projects are reshaping the regional balance.

形成中的大國競爭并不僅限于軍事領(lǐng)域，還延伸至法律主張、投資流動、科學合作、數(shù)據(jù)控制以及制度性影響力等多個層面。

The emerging rivalry among powers is not only confined to military affairs, but it also extends to legal claims, investment flows, scientific cooperation, data control, and institutional influence.

對于美國而言，北極已成為導彈預(yù)警體系、太空監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)以及跨大西洋防務(wù)架構(gòu)中的關(guān)鍵樞紐。格陵蘭——近期爭議討論的焦點之一——位于北美與歐洲之間的戰(zhàn)略要沖，這一地緣位置進一步強化了華盛頓鞏固其戰(zhàn)略存在的意圖。

For the United States, the Arctic has become central to missile warning systems, space surveillance, and transatlantic defence architecture. Greenland — as a center of contentious discussions recently — occupies a pivotal position between North America and Europe, reinforcing Washington’s interest in consolidating its strategic presence.

俄羅斯將北極視為其核心國家安全前沿。近年來，其不斷擴建軍事基地，升級破冰船隊，并將北方航道納入國家防務(wù)與經(jīng)濟戰(zhàn)略體系之中。對莫斯科而言，“高北地區(qū)”（High North）既是戰(zhàn)略縱深所在，也是重要的地緣政治籌碼。

Russia treats the Arctic as a core national security frontier. It has expanded military bases, modernized icebreaker fleets, and integrated the Northern Sea Route into its defence and economic strategy. For Moscow, the High North represents both strategic depth and geopolitical leverage.

中國自我定位為“近北極國家”，并通過“極地絲綢之路”框架，加強科研考察、物流布局與商業(yè)參與。這些活動雖以民用性質(zhì)加以表述，但在西方語境中，往往被置于體系性競爭的視角加以解讀。

China, defining itself as a “near-Arctic state,” has intensified scientific missions, logistics development, and commercial engagement through its Polar Silk Road framework. These activities, while framed as civilian, are widely interpreted in the West through the lens of systemic rivalry.

加拿大及北歐國家加強了主權(quán)巡邏、監(jiān)測體系與北部基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)。北約演習也日益納入北極情境，顯示出該地區(qū)正被系統(tǒng)性整合進聯(lián)盟的安全規(guī)劃之中。

Canada and Nordic states have strengthened sovereignty patrols, surveillance systems, and northern infrastructure.NATOexercises increasingly incorporate Arctic scenarios, reflecting the region’s integration into alliance security planning.

在這一不斷演變的背景下，氣候變化正發(fā)揮著“戰(zhàn)略加速器”的作用。它壓縮了戰(zhàn)略博弈的時間窗口，加劇了競爭態(tài)勢，也削弱了地理環(huán)境曾經(jīng)提供的緩沖空間。

In this evolving context, climate change functions as a strategic accelerator. It compresses timelines, intensifies competition, and weakens the buffer once provided by geography.

如果當前趨勢持續(xù)下去，北極有可能淪為又一個由碎片化治理與權(quán)力政治主導、集體責任被邊緣化的博弈場域。

If current trends continue, the Arctic risks becoming another arena in which fragmented governance and power politics override collective responsibility.

北極已不再只是一個持續(xù)升溫的地區(qū)，而正逐步演變?yōu)閼?zhàn)略重構(gòu)的核心場域。與此同時，那些為低緊張時期而設(shè)計的北極治理機制，正日益受到互不信任與地緣政治外溢效應(yīng)的沖擊與擠壓。

The Arctic is no longer merely warming; it is becoming a central arena of strategic repositioning, and Arctic governance mechanisms, designed for an era of low tension, are increasingly strained by mistrust and geopolitical spillovers.

北極地區(qū)的主要航運路線圖。圖源：英國衛(wèi)報

三、格陵蘭問題與聯(lián)盟治理的壓力

III. Greenland and the Strain on Alliance Governance

近年來，格陵蘭已成為美國高度關(guān)注的硬戰(zhàn)略焦點。格陵蘭位于北大西洋、北冰洋以及北美與歐洲大陸交匯處的關(guān)鍵地緣位置。其區(qū)位使其成為早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)、導彈防御基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、太空與空域監(jiān)測體系的重要樞紐，同時也是控制GIUK（格陵蘭—冰島—英國）海軍缺口的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點——這一通道是跨大西洋海軍行動與核威懾體系中的重要戰(zhàn)略咽喉。

In recent years, Greenland has emerged as a hard strategic focus for the United States. Greenland occupies a pivotal geostrategic location at the intersection of the North Atlantic, the Arctic Ocean, and the North American and European landmasses. Its position makes it a linchpin for early-warning systems, missile defence infrastructure, space and air monitoring, and control of the GIUK (Greenland,Iceland,UK) naval gap, a critical chokepoint for transAtlantic naval movements and nuclear deterrence.

作為丹麥王國內(nèi)的自治領(lǐng)地，格陵蘭在跨大西洋安全架構(gòu)中處于高度敏感的位置。數(shù)十年來，美國的防務(wù)設(shè)施在丹麥主權(quán)與聯(lián)盟合作框架下并存運行。根據(jù)美丹之間長期存在的防務(wù)安排，美軍一直在格陵蘭保持軍事存在，尤以皮圖菲克太空基地（Pituffik Space Base）為代表。然而，近年來美國領(lǐng)導層的政治表態(tài)已超越傳統(tǒng)安全合作的范疇，公開主張對該島實施直接控制甚至收購，并一度提出使其正式成為美國領(lǐng)土的設(shè)想。這一立場明顯背離了二戰(zhàn)后北約所確立的基本規(guī)范。

As an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland occupies a sensitive position in transatlantic security arrangements. For decades, U.S. defence installations coexisted with Danish sovereignty and alliance cooperation. Under longstanding defence arrangements between the U.S. and Denmark, American military forces have maintained a presence in Greenland, notably at Pituffik Space Base. But recent political rhetoric by U.S. leadership has gone beyond traditional security cooperation to advocate for direct control or acquisition of the island, even floating the idea that it could become formally American territory. This is a striking departure from post-World War II NATO norms.

美國方面關(guān)于加強對基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施與資源控制的表態(tài)，已在歐盟與北約內(nèi)部引發(fā)廣泛關(guān)切。

Expressions of American interest in greater control over infrastructure and resources have raised concerns within the European Union and NATO.

歐洲各國政府對此作出強烈回應(yīng)。多位歐盟及北約成員國發(fā)表聯(lián)合聲明，強調(diào)格陵蘭的未來屬于丹麥及其自治當局的內(nèi)部事務(wù)，并警告任何來自美國方面——即便只是言辭層面的——“接管”意圖，都可能動搖聯(lián)盟團結(jié)的根本基礎(chǔ)。一些歐洲領(lǐng)導人更將這一爭議界定為對《北大西洋公約》第五條精神的挑戰(zhàn)。該條款規(guī)定，盟國在遭受外部侵略時應(yīng)承擔集體防御義務(wù)。在一種假設(shè)情境下，若美國對另一北約成員領(lǐng)土動用武力，集體防御的邏輯將面臨最嚴峻的考驗：第五條是否意味著歐洲需要為丹麥對抗華盛頓？歐洲官員已將這種可能性形容為聯(lián)盟面臨的根本性危機。

European governments have reacted sharply. Several EU and NATO members issued joint statements asserting that Greenland’s future is an internal matter for Denmark and its autonomous authorities, and warning that any attempt by the United States to seize control-even rhetorically- threatens the very foundation of alliance solidarity. Some European leaders framed this dispute as a challenge to the spirit of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which commits allies to mutual defence against external aggression. In the hypothetical scenario of a U.S. use of force against a fellow NATO territory, the logic of collective defence would face its most extreme test: would Article 5 obligate Europe to defend Denmark against Washington? European officials have described such a possibility as a fundamental crisis for the alliance.

這些舉動被廣泛視為對以尊重主權(quán)與集體防御為基礎(chǔ)的聯(lián)盟規(guī)范的試探與沖擊。

These moves are widely perceived as testing alliance norms based on mutual respect for sovereignty and collective defence.

這一爭議亦在北約內(nèi)部引發(fā)討論，圍繞如何強化歐洲防務(wù)支柱，并調(diào)整北極地區(qū)的行動構(gòu)想，以確保在跨大西洋分歧加劇的背景下，戰(zhàn)略合作不至于發(fā)生結(jié)構(gòu)性松動。

The dispute has also triggered discussions within NATO about enhancing a European defence pillar and adjusting operational concepts in the Arctic to ensure that strategic cooperation does not unravel amid transatlantic disagreements.

這一問題所牽涉的，遠不止一場雙邊分歧。格陵蘭爭議所暴露的，是西方安全架構(gòu)內(nèi)部更深層次的張力——即合作式治理與單邊戰(zhàn)略算計之間的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾。

At stake is more than a bilateral disagreement. The Greenland issue exposes a deeper tension within Western security arrangements: between cooperative governance and unilateral strategic calculation.

如果聯(lián)盟成員以犧牲伙伴利益為代價追求領(lǐng)土或基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施優(yōu)勢，集體防御框架的可信度勢必受到削弱。建立在信任與互惠基礎(chǔ)之上的第五條邏輯，也將更容易受到政治層面的重新詮釋與動搖。

If alliance members pursue territorial or infrastructural advantage at the expense of partners, the credibility of collective defence frameworks is weakened. The logic of Article 5, built on trust and reciprocity, becomes vulnerable to political reinterpretation.

因此，格陵蘭問題生動地表明，氣候驅(qū)動下的戰(zhàn)略重構(gòu)如何可能動搖既有制度基礎(chǔ)。環(huán)境變化在開啟新的物理空間的同時，也在對合作所依托的政治架構(gòu)施加持續(xù)壓力。

Greenland thus illustrates how climate-driven strategic repositioning can destabilize institutional foundations. Environmental change is opening physical space while placing stress on the political architecture of cooperation.

2025年3月15日，格陵蘭民眾在努克美國領(lǐng)事館前舉行抗議活動。圖源：美聯(lián)社

四、人類所面臨的直接與長期影響

IV. The Immediate and Long-Term Human Consequences

正如本文所指出的，氣候變化所帶來的結(jié)果具有某種悖論性：它不僅造成環(huán)境損失，也催生了新的經(jīng)濟與軍事布局空間。港口、機場、衛(wèi)星設(shè)施和監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)正在擴建或升級；海軍部署與聯(lián)合演習不斷增加；各國戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想也在根據(jù)北極現(xiàn)實進行調(diào)整。

As we argued in this article, climate change has produced, paradoxically, not only environmental loss, but also new arenas for economic and military positioning. Ports, airfields, satellite facilities, and surveillance systems are being expanded or modernized. Naval deployments and joint exercises are increasing. Strategic doctrines are being adjusted to Arctic realities.

環(huán)境退化由此被轉(zhuǎn)化為地緣政治博弈中的戰(zhàn)略籌碼。

Environmental degradation has thus been translated into geopolitical leverage.

對航道、資源與物流樞紐的獲取，已不再僅由地理條件決定，而是越來越取決于技術(shù)能力、資本實力與政治站位。能夠在極端環(huán)境中開展行動的國家，將獲得不成比例的戰(zhàn)略優(yōu)勢；而其他國家則面臨被邊緣化的風險。

Access to routes, resources, and logistical hubs is no longer determined by geography alone, but by technological capacity, financial strength, and political alignment. States capable of operating in extreme conditions gain disproportionate advantages. Others risk strategic marginalization.

在這一背景下，北極正被重新界定——不再是人類共享的生態(tài)遺產(chǎn)，而是一個充滿競爭與博弈的戰(zhàn)略空間。

In this context, the Arctic is being redefined-not as a shared ecological heritage- but as a contested strategic space.

近期的科學研究與調(diào)查性報道表明，北極融化已不再是抽象的風險預(yù)警，而正在引發(fā)一系列系統(tǒng)性變化，威脅水資源安全、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定、經(jīng)濟秩序以及人類健康。

Recent scientific research and investigative reporting reveal that Arctic melting is no longer an abstract risk. It is triggering systemic changes that threaten water security, ecosystems, economic stability, and human health.

過去十年是北極有記錄以來最為溫暖的十年。根據(jù)美國國家海洋和大氣管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）的數(shù)據(jù)，2025年冬季海冰面積降至歷史最低水平。與此同時，歐盟觀測計劃“哥白尼”（Copernicus）警告稱，全球氣溫升至1.5°C的時間點可能早于此前預(yù)期。這種加速趨勢反映出化石燃料排放的持續(xù)增長，以及國際氣候協(xié)調(diào)機制的薄弱。

The past decade has been the warmest on record in the Arctic. Winter sea ice reached historic lows in 2025, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Meanwhile, the European Union’s observation programme Copernicus, warns that global temperatures are approaching 1.5°C earlier than anticipated.This acceleration reflects continued growth in fossil fuel emissions and weak international climate coordination.

哥白尼氣候觀策計劃的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年12月《巴黎協(xié)定》簽署時，1.5°C的升溫閾值將在2042年3月達到。2025年末在協(xié)定簽署十周年之際，該計劃預(yù)測，這一目標將在2029年5月達到。圖片：哥白尼計劃

其中最令人警惕的后果之一，是淡水系統(tǒng)的退化。

One of the most alarming consequences is the degradation of freshwater systems.

在阿拉斯加的布魯克斯山脈（Brooks Range），由于永久凍土融化將鐵、錳、鎳和鋁等元素釋放進入水體循環(huán)，已有超過200條河流呈現(xiàn)銹橙色。阿拉斯加費爾班克斯大學（University of Alaska Fairbanks）參與的研究證實，這一被稱為“銹河”（rusting river）的現(xiàn)象，正是由氣候變化所驅(qū)動。隨著永久凍土解凍，數(shù)千年來被凍結(jié)的礦物質(zhì)與有機物開始發(fā)生化學活化；當其暴露于氧氣和酸性水體環(huán)境中時，便引發(fā)一系列化學反應(yīng)，將金屬元素淋濾并輸送進入河流系統(tǒng)。

In Alaska’s Brooks Range, more than 200 rivers have turned rust-orange as thawing permafrost releases iron, manganese, nickel, and aluminium into circulation. Research involving the University of Alaska Fairbanks confirms that this “rusting river” phenomenon is driven by climate change. As permafrost thaws, minerals and organic matter that were frozen for millennia become chemically active. Exposure to oxygen and acidic water triggers reactions that leach metals into river systems.

阿拉斯加北極之門國家公園庫圖克河的河水呈銹紅色。融化的永久凍土使礦物質(zhì)暴露在風化作用下，導致河水酸度升高，并釋放出鐵、鋅和銅等金屬。(美國國家公園管理局）

一旦激活，這些化學過程在事實上幾乎不可逆轉(zhuǎn)。

Once initiated, these chemical processes are effectively irreversible.

類似的變化也正在歐洲多處山區(qū)顯現(xiàn)，包括阿爾卑斯山和比利牛斯山脈，這表明更為廣泛的地球化學失衡正在發(fā)生。

Similar transformations are emerging in mountain regions across Europe, including the Alps and Pyrenees, signalling broader geochemical disruption.

永久凍土的融化還會釋放大量溫室氣體。伍德韋爾氣候研究中心（Woodwell Climate Research Center）的研究人員指出，解凍土壤中的微生物活動會形成反饋循環(huán)，從而進一步加速全球變暖進程。

Permafrost thaw also releases massive quantities of greenhouse gases. According to researchers at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, microbial activity in thawing soils creates feedback loops that accelerate warming.

北極研究所（The Arctic Institute）的估算顯示，全球永久凍土中蘊含的碳儲量高達1.7萬億噸——約為2024年全球各國碳排放總量的45倍。即便其中僅有部分釋放，也可能從根本上動搖現(xiàn)有氣候減緩努力的基礎(chǔ)。

Estimates by The Arctic Institute suggest that global permafrost contains up to 1.7 trillion tonnes of carbon- roughly forty-five times the total emissions produced by all countries in 2024. If released even partially, this reservoir could fundamentally destabilize climate mitigation efforts.

對于北極地區(qū)的社區(qū)而言，這些變化已開始轉(zhuǎn)化為深刻的社會與經(jīng)濟沖擊。飲用水受到污染，建筑物發(fā)生坍塌，海岸侵蝕迫使居民遷移；以狩獵、捕魚和季節(jié)性遷徙為基礎(chǔ)的傳統(tǒng)生計方式日益受到侵蝕。

For Arctic communities, these changes are already translate into social and economic disruption.Drinking water become contaminated. Building collapse. Coastal erosion forces relocatation. Traditional livelihoods based on hunting, fishing, and seasonal migration are increasingly undermined.

據(jù)估計，到2100年，近地表永久凍土可能大范圍消失。這將加劇野火、洪澇、地面塌陷以及極地地區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施失效。

It is estimated that, by 2100, near-surface permafrost may largely disappear. This would intensify wildfires, flooding, land collapse, and infrastructure failure across polar regions.

2003年至2024年北半球高緯度地區(qū)（北緯 60° 以北）所有陸地野火造成的年度碳排放總量估算值（百萬噸）。顏色代表排放區(qū)域。（右圖）地圖顯示了四個區(qū)域：西部亞北極（深棕色）、西部北極（淺棕色）、東部亞北極（深橙色）和東部北極（淺橙色）。圖源：哥白尼計劃

正在發(fā)生的，并不僅僅是環(huán)境退化，而是人類棲居空間的緩慢瓦解。

What is unfolding is not simply environmental degradation. It is the slow dismantling of human habitats.

更為廣泛地看，科學家警告稱，一旦跨越關(guān)鍵氣候臨界點，地球系統(tǒng)可能發(fā)生不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的變化，從而危及全球經(jīng)濟增長、糧食安全與公共健康。

More broadly, scientists warn that crossing critical climatic thresholds could trigger irreversible changes across Earth’s systems, endangering economic growth, food security, and public health worldwide.

北極，已然成為全球風險的“放大器”。

The Arctic has become a global risk multiplier.

五、治理、秩序與未來

V. Governance, Order, and the Future

正如本文此前所指出的，北極理事會及現(xiàn)有治理機制原本是在地緣政治緊張程度較低的時代背景下設(shè)計的。而如今，政治極化、制裁對抗以及戰(zhàn)略互疑，正對這些制度框架構(gòu)成持續(xù)性的壓力。

As was mentioned earlier in this article, the Arctic Council and existing governance mechanisms were designed for an era of low geopolitical tension. Today, polarization, sanctions, and strategic mistrust strain these frameworks.

環(huán)境治理日益讓位于安全考量；科學合作被政治化；透明度不斷下降。

Environmental management is increasingly subordinated to security calculation. Scientific cooperation is politicized. Transparency declines.

如果競爭壓倒責任，北極可能淪為又一個碎片化治理的場域，映射出國際體系更為廣泛的結(jié)構(gòu)性裂痕。

If rivalry overtakes responsibility, the Arctic may become another arena of fragmented governance, reflecting wider fractures in the international system.

然而，另一條路徑仍然存在。

Yet another path remains possible.

北極完全可能成為重塑多邊主義的試驗場——在共同規(guī)則之下，將氣候減緩、原住民權(quán)利、安全透明與可持續(xù)發(fā)展加以整合。

The Arctic could become a laboratory for renewed multilateralism- integrating climate mitigation, indigenous rights, security transparency, and sustainable development under shared rules.

真正的抉擇，并非發(fā)展與保護之間的對立，而是在短期競爭與長期地球穩(wěn)定之間作出選擇。

The choice is not between development and preservation. It is between short-term competition and long-term planetary stability.

結(jié)語：對全球成熟度的考驗

Conclusion: A Test of Global Maturity

北極的融化，并非單純的區(qū)域性變遷，而是一場檢驗——檢驗人類能否在權(quán)力政治與生態(tài)邊界之間實現(xiàn)真正的調(diào)和。

The melting Arctic is not merely a regional transformation. It is a test of whether humanity can reconcile power politics with ecological limits.

如果氣候失序成為軍事化與大國競爭的催化劑，其后果將遠遠超出北極圈本身。然而，若各國能夠認識到，北極的穩(wěn)定本質(zhì)上支撐著全球體系的穩(wěn)定，那么合作仍有可能占據(jù)上風。

If climate breakdown becomes an accelerant of militarization and rivalry, the consequences will extend far beyond the polar circle. If, however, states recognize that Arctic stability underpins global stability, cooperation may yet prevail.

北極正處于地球生命支持系統(tǒng)與地緣政治雄心交匯的節(jié)點。

The Arctic stands at the intersection of life-support systems and geopolitical ambition.

北極將如何被治理，將深刻揭示當下正在成形的世界秩序的走向與性質(zhì)。

How it is governed will reveal much about the world order now taking shape.

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