四中全會解讀丨尹稚教授在《北京周報》刊文：筑牢發展動能的“空間載體”

導 讀

10月20日至23日，黨的二十屆四中全會在京舉行，審議通過了《中共中央關于制定國民經濟和社會發展第十五個五年規劃的建議》。為此，《北京周報》（BEIJING REVIEW）獨家專訪清華大學中國新型城鎮化研究院院長尹稚教授，權威解讀“十五五”時期中國區域發展的戰略思路。

內容來源：《北京周報》（BEIJING REVIEW）2025年第45期

專訪整理：北京周報記者 張莎莎

尹 稚

清華大學建筑學院教授，博士生導師

清華大學中國新型城鎮化研究院院長

清華大學城市治理與可持續發展研究院院長

清華大學國家治理與全球治理研究院首席專家

中國城市規劃學會副監事長

清華同衡規劃設計研究院創始人、資深顧問專家

城市規劃領域中的“門檻理論”揭示了一個普遍規律：任何事業的進步并非遵循簡單的線性上升路徑，而是在經歷階段性爆發式增長后，往往會因環境變遷、技術制約等因素，進入一個調整與平臺期。這一階段通常需要完成幾項關鍵任務：識別重大機遇的轉變，突破發展過程中的關鍵性瓶頸，探索新舊動能之間有效轉換的路徑，并在新的發展條件下實現可用資源的優化重組。一旦成功跨越這些關鍵障礙，便有望迎來下一輪更高質量、更高速度的成長。無論是城市、區域還是國家的發展，其軌跡都不是一條斜率恒定的上升直線，而更接近于階梯式的躍升過程。

中國的現代化進程同樣呈現出清晰的階梯式遞進特征。“十五五”時期的發展重點，不在于盲目追求規模與速度，而是要為高質量發展立規則、樹標準、探路徑、調布局和謀統籌。必須夯實基礎、全面發力，克難關、戰風險、迎挑戰。到2035年，中國現代化進程能否行穩致遠，關鍵取決于這五年所奠定的基礎是否牢固、所選擇的路徑是否科學合理。一旦平穩跨越這一關鍵階段，在“十六五”乃至“十七五”期間，中國社會經濟有望迎來新一輪的爆發式增長。

“四大戰略”疊加效應

二十屆四中全會為下一階段區域發展作出了明確部署：

四大戰略疊加，協同驅動區域發展。全會強調，要充分發揮區域協調發展戰略、區域重大戰略、主體功能區戰略與新型城鎮化戰略的疊加效應。過去，這四大戰略各有側重：區域協調注重均衡，重大戰略聚焦增長極建設，主體功能區強調分區差異化治理，新型城鎮化則著眼于人的現代化與城市的主導作用。四大戰略疊加，就是要實現發展動力與空間載體的高效匹配。

要推動從城市到區域的特色化發展，而不是用“一把尺子”量全國。各地區要立足其自然資源稟賦、區位條件和社會經濟基礎，制定符合實際的發展目標。部分區域適宜推進高速高質量增長，部分地區反而適合減量發展。重點城市化地區是經濟主引擎，發展綜合性強，也是人口主要聚集地；而生態保育地區，則不應追求工業高速高增加值，而要聚焦生態治理能力的提升。此外，應推動城市化優勢地區與潛力地區的對接融合，在綜合評估基礎上明確區域新定位，尋找特色化發展機遇。

推動經濟布局與國土空間體系融合發展。要促進區域經濟布局與國土空間體系的匹配優化。經濟社會發展規劃明確目標與標準，國土空間體系則為發展提供具有適宜區位、合理規模與質量保障的空間載體。“十四五”時期側重于開發與保護的結構平衡，旨在緩解城鎮化高速發展階段中大規模建設與生態保護間的突出矛盾。當前，我國在國土空間保護與約束體系建設方面已取得顯著進展，但在發展支撐能力上仍有提升空間。因此，新階段重在優化國土空間發展格局，強化其對社會經濟發展的保障作用，實現“優勢互補、各司其職”的高質量發展路徑。

強化區域聯動，破解發展不平衡問題。區域協調發展戰略進一步強調區域聯動，旨在加快解決發展不平衡問題。其重點包括兩個方面：一是推動強勢區域之間的強強聯合，促進資源整合與功能協同，實現“1+1>2”的聚合效應，提升整體發展質量；二是促進發達地區與欠發達地區之間的互補聯動，既依靠中央財政轉移支付等調控手段，也鼓勵市場機制發揮作用，利用兩類地區間的資源差、成本差、價位差，推動產業集群和產業鏈上進一步的分工合作，實現整體效益最大化。

深入推進以人為本的新型城鎮化。新型城鎮化的核心始終是“以人為本”。城市化進程，無論是量化指標的城市化率，還是城市所承擔的社會經濟發展功能，說到底還是 “人”的命題。推動現代化的根本目標，始終是人的現代化及全體國民素質的大幅提升。

首先，要解決好市民化的問題。市民化進程的核心，在于超越單純的職業轉換，實現農業轉移人口在城市的深度融入。過去以“農民工”為代表的模式，其在文化認同、居住形態、生活模式上仍然處于農村化，是“半市民化”狀態。真正的、完整的市民化，需要實現就業轉移、生活方式轉移和社會意識轉移。這不僅涉及就業，也要求建立一個覆蓋其自身及家庭的公共服務體系，確保在教育、醫療、社保等領域享有平等權利。

當前，勞動力轉移結構正經歷深刻轉折，大專及以上學歷畢業生進城規模已超越農村剩余勞動力的轉移數量。在這一新形勢下，市民化工作須確保新市民“進得來、留得下、發展好”，并在積累了技能與物質財富后返鄉創業、振興鄉村，最終構建一個從“鄉到城”再到“城到鄉”的良性雙向循環體系。

其次，要優化社會財富分配結構，提高勞動收入占比。我國高度重視收入分配公平問題，堅決防止財富兩極分化與底層民粹化風險。在推進城鎮化的過程中，應抑制經濟過度金融化傾向，確保金融工具服務于實體經濟、科技創新與民生改善，而非成為資本逐利的通道。

為高質量發展提供空間支撐

傳統社會的一個顯著特征是，人、土地與特定地域之間存在緊密的依附關系；而現代社會則呈現出高度的流動性，新的就業機會與發展空間，根本上來源于各類生產要素的流通與重組。在這一方面，我國已取得顯著進展：以人流、物流、信息流、資本流為代表的廣義互聯互通網絡不斷強化，硬件設施與軟件環境同步提升，社會整體流動性顯著增強。與此同時，以商品流通為核心的全國統一大市場也已基本具備成熟條件。

在此背景下，推動生產力要素的更高水平自由流動成為關鍵。未來的核心任務之一，是破除勞動者自由流動的壁壘。當前，勞動者在省域范圍內的流動已基本實現無障礙，長三角等發達地區已開始探索勞動力跨省域流動。長遠目標是實現全國范圍內的人口自由流動，最理想的狀態是身份證能夠只作為公民身份標識，逐步與流動過程中享受的社會福利基本脫鉤。在土地要素方面，土地指標是否能夠在指標稀缺地區和富裕地區流動也非常關鍵。目前，指標調配還多局限于市域或省域范圍內。對于數據等新質生產要素，則需著力破解“數字孤島”，在“十五五”期間通過建立規則與標準，實現其跨部門、跨領域的合規高效流動。

在“十五五”階段，發展水平最高的地區已進入構建世界級城市群為主要任務的發展階段。大部分地區仍需以培育規模適度的現代化都市圈為首要任務。近年來，除長三角、粵港澳、京津冀等傳統優勢區域外，越來越多的城市群和都市圈開始見諸于國內和國際舞臺，其中包括成渝雙城經濟圈、以武漢、長沙、南昌為核心的長江中游城市群、在“一帶一路”發展中作用日益突出的以烏魯木齊為中心的天山北坡城市群、面向東盟和東南亞地區發展的北部灣城市群，以及以昆明為核心的滇中城市群。隨著國家全球互聯互通戰略的深入推進，以及中國在全球經濟體系中扮演更加重要的角色，更多戰略樞紐地區的地位將得到進一步鞏固和提升。

當前，優化戰略腹地建設已成為國家發展的重要議題，新一輪戰略腹地建設秉持“邊斗爭、邊備戰、邊建設”的指導思想，旨在應對日益復雜的國際形勢與不確定性挑戰。與上世紀六七十年代的“三線建設”不同，當前戰略腹地建設不僅承擔國家重大生產力與能源資源戰略儲備功能，更順應了經濟格局市場化調整的內在需求。隨著沿海地區物業成本與生活成本的抬升，產業鏈各環節依據效益原則進行空間重構。部分產業環節從高成本地區向戰略腹地轉移。事實上，許多在戰略腹地形成的新興產業和新產業鏈條上的關鍵制造節點，正是市場主體自主選擇的結果。不少沿海企業積極在腹地設立第二、第三制造基地，這些基地憑借租金成本優勢、勞動力資源豐富等條件，往往形成比沿海原有基地更大規模、更高水平的產能集聚。本輪戰略樞紐與戰略腹地建設，呈現出“有效市場”與“有為政府”相互促進的特征。

近年來，“要素隨人走、投資隨人走、資源隨人走”已成為資源配置的重要導向，相關政策開始注重對人口流入與流出地區實施差異化的投資與要素投放。在全國城市化進程中，具體城市出現人口增減是正常現象。對于承擔生態保育功能的地區而言，其首要任務是保護生態環境，而非盲目追求人口增長。這些地區往往已面臨人口超載壓力，因此，通過提升教育水平，促使培養出的勞動力向更適合發展現代產業的城市化地區集中，實際上有利于區域協調發展。

人口有序流動可通過兩種形式改善原居地居民生活水平：一是外出務工人員通過匯款反哺家鄉，二是部分家庭實現整體遷移。這為生態敏感地區帶來人口減負，留守居民人均占有的生態資源量相應提升。通過有效管護與保育，這些生態資源將轉化為高價值的生態資產，形成新發展優勢。隨著“雙碳”目標的推進，碳交易市場活力將不斷增強。在嚴格控制碳排放的背景下，一些必要的高碳行業可通過購買排放配額持續運營，這為人口減負地區創造了新的發展機遇。

農業地區同樣遵循相似邏輯。在人均耕地面積有限的背景下，推動農業人口向承載能力更強、生活與發展條件更優的地區集聚，有助于騰退更多空間，以更合理的資源負荷推進生態修復與耕地保護。通過提升人均耕作面積與經營規模，農業才能真正實現增收與可持續發展。因此，“要素隨人走、投資隨人走、資源隨人走”的配置機制，將顯著提升經濟發展的效率與區域專業化、特色化水平。

前一階段的國土空間規劃工作更多在于強調底線約束與生態保護，以快速緩解資源環境領域的突出矛盾。然而，僅僅守住底線并不足以支撐高質量發展的全面要求。國土空間規劃不僅承擔著保護自然資源與生態底線的責任，同樣肩負著為經濟社會發展提供有效空間支撐和環境保障的重要使命。正因如此，“十五五”時期將著力推動保護與發展的深度融合，增強發展動能與資源環境承載能力之間的匹配度，提升國土空間的綜合支撐能力。同時必須明確的是，發展始終是中國面對任何國際環境時的核心主題。

以下為英文報道原文：

China aims to create a more effective alignment between the forces that drive growth and the spaces that carry it

By Yin Zhi

In urban planning, there is a well-known "threshold theory," which suggests that development, whether of a city, a region or an entire nation, does not follow a smooth and linear path upward; instead, progress advances in stages.

After a period of rapid growth, with changes in development environment and technological bottlenecks, there often comes a phase of adjustment and stabilization, during which several tasks must be undertaken: identifying shifts in major opportunities, overcoming key development obstacles, achieving an effective transition between old and new growth drivers, and reorganizing available resources in response to changing circumstances. Once these challenges are resolved, a new phase of accelerated development begins.

China's modernization follows this law. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period will not be about racing for speed or scale. Rather, it will be about setting the rules, establishing the standards, exploring pathways, optimizing planning and ensuring coordinated progress for high-quality development. It will be a time for China to strengthen foundations and confront challenges head-on.

From coordination to integration

Over the years, China has introduced four strategies for guiding regional development. Each once served a distinct purpose—the Coordinated Regional Development Strategy emphasized balance, the Major Regional Strategies prioritized the creation of growth poles, the Functional Zoning Strategy focused on differentiated governance, and the New Urbanization Strategy centered on people's modernization and the leading role of cities in the process.

The emphasis on "giving full play to the synergies between the four strategies" in the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development aims to create a more effective alignment between the forces that drive growth and the spaces that carry it. The document, adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, held in Beijing on October 20-23, establish the guiding principles and objectives for China's overall advancement over the next five years.

China is placing even greater emphasis on tailored development based on each region's distinctive natural, economic and social resource conditions. Another focus is the integration of regional economic layout and the territorial space system. The former sets goals and standards for development while the latter provides the physical and environmental foundation for achieving them (such as zoning and land use planning).

During the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, the emphasis of spatial planning has been on balancing development and conservation, as China is still in a phase of rapid urbanization and faces strong tensions between large-scale construction and ecological preservation. In contrast to our major progress in environmental protection and regulatory frameworks, the mechanisms that sustain development have not yet played their full role. Thus, the new priority is to optimize the spatial layout for development.

A critical component of China's regional coordination strategy in the new stage is boosting interconnected development between regions. This has two main dimensions: Developed regions should cooperate to achieve a "one plus one is greater than two" effect, creating greater efficiency, innovation and competitiveness through synergy; cooperation between developed and less developed regions must be deepened. This involves not only financial transfer payments but also market-driven mechanisms that leverage their differences in prices, resources and costs to promote industrial clustering and value-chain collaboration. The goal is to maximize overall economic efficiency across regions. (The financial transfer payment refers to the funds allocated by higher-level governments to lower-level governments free of charge. It is an important policy tool mainly used to solve the problem of regional financial imbalance and promote the equalization of basic public services between regions—Ed.)

The concept of "people-centered" new urbanization is underlined in the document of recommendations. When discussing urbanization, whether in terms of the urbanization rate or the leading role cities play in driving social and economic development, it ultimately comes down to people.

In this regard, one of the tasks is to ensure people who move to cities from rural areas obtain household registration and access basic public services in their place of permanent residence.

A truly people-centered urbanization also touches upon how social wealth created by urbanization is distributed, specifically, increasing the labor income share. The ultimate goal is to raise overall national income, not to concentrate wealth among a few.

Strategic mobility

Modern society is defined by mobility. The more primitive a society, the more tightly people and land are bound together. However, new opportunities stem from the free flow of factors of production, namely, labor, capital, goods and information. China has made remarkable progress in this regard. From physical infrastructure to digital systems, connectivity has advanced greatly over the years. A unified national market centered on the free flow of goods is now largely in place.

The next step is to enable the freer movement of other factors of production, beginning with labor. Within provinces, mobility is already largely unhindered. In more advanced regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, policymakers are exploring how to achieve seamless inter-provincial movement. The ultimate goal is nationwide mobility.

Land use and resource allocation will follow a similar trajectory. For instance, can urban construction land quotas be transferred freely between resource-scarce and resource-abundant areas? Today, such adjustments are still largely limited within municipal or provincial boundaries. The same question extends to data resources. Breaking down "data silos" and enabling cross-sector data flow will also be key issues during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

During this period, China's most advanced regions are already moving into a new phase: developing world-class city clusters. For most other regions, the focus will be on cultivating smaller modern metropolitan circles with distinctive strengths. As China advances its strategy of global connectivity, a greater number of strategic hubs will be further strengthened.

Another priority is strengthening strategic hinterland. As property and living costs rise in eastern coastal regions, parts of the industrial chain are relocating inland, where production and living costs are lower. Many firms are building second or even third manufacturing bases in inland regions. These regions will play a crucial role in China's next phase of economic restructuring.

In recent years, China has also emphasized that factors of production, investment and resources should flow in line with the trends of population movement. This marks a shift toward more differentiated and adaptive policymaking, ensuring that both growing urban centers and less-populated areas receive the targeted support to achieve balanced and efficient development.

Urban population increases and decreases are part of a dynamic system. For ecological preservation areas, maintaining smaller populations and reducing human pressure can itself generate new value.

As China advances toward its goals of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, carbon markets will become a major new growth driver. Regions with lighter industrial footprints, including those with declining populations, will gain fresh opportunities by converting ecological resources into economic assets through conservation and carbon trading.

In earlier years, China's spatial planning focused mainly on preserving ecology and resources. The 15th Five-Year Plan shifts emphasis toward strengthening the foundation for development, ensuring that security and growth advance together. Even amid global uncertainty, development remains China's core priority.

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