徐天啟：“南美瑞士”烏拉圭的戰略智慧

編者按：2月1日，烏拉圭總統奧爾西抵達北京，開啟為期7天的訪華之旅。當天，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院國別研究部副主任、副研究員徐天啟接受并表示，烏拉圭通過務實合作拓展戰略空間，以國內穩定為根基鞏固外交根基，為當今世界各國應對大國競爭、保持獨立自主提供了重要國際模板。現將采訪視頻及文章中英文發布如下： （全文約2500字，預計閱讀時間7分鐘）

▲點擊查看專訪內容

烏拉圭總統亞曼杜·奧爾西于2月1日至7日訪華，成為中國政府正式發布第三份《中國對拉丁美洲和加勒比政策文件》后第一位訪華的拉美國家元首。被世界稱為“南美瑞士”的烏拉圭，再次用智慧強化自身的獨立自主能力，推動世界向多邊主義發展。

01

烏拉圭和拉美國家的最大外部挑戰

對于烏拉圭和許多拉美國家來說，越來越多證據表明，其發展的最大外部挑戰來自他們的鄰居美國。拉丁美洲是西半球的重要組成部分，而美國最新宣布的所謂“新西半球戰略”，集中體現在最新的美國《國家安全戰略》、2026年《國防安全戰略》等文件中。這些文件都提出要執行門羅主義的“特朗普推論”，就是說，美國要求西半球國家減少與域外國家的聯系與合作，將本國資源與權力向美國讓渡。這項所謂的新戰略已被全球許多媒體和學者徹底揭露：美國意圖將整個西半球的資源盡數掌控于己。例如，美國近期對委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅實施的扣押行動，被國際社會廣泛視為其企圖控制委內瑞拉原油的手段。

在此背景下，烏拉圭總統此次訪華無疑有著自己的戰略目的。閱讀烏拉圭“廣泛陣線”所提出的《2025-2030執政綱要》，其中明確提出烏拉圭應實施主動的、有利于國家主權的、捍衛多邊主義的外交政策，這顯然與美國的“門羅主義”西半球戰略不符。因此，奧爾西要借訪華向華盛頓傳遞明確信號：烏拉圭長期奉行獨立自主、多邊主義的外交傳統，蒙得維的亞有權對特朗普所謂的新半球戰略“說不”，這無疑是對美國門羅主義霸權的有力回擊。

02

加強一切務實對外合作增進烏拉圭國家利益

在當今充滿挑戰的世界環境中，一個國家越是能堅定不移地倡導多邊主義、推動全球多極化進程、并與所有伙伴保持良好關系，就越能確保其國家利益最大化，這似乎是顯而易見的道理。而烏拉圭正踐行著這樣的理念。據報道，奧爾西此行人數超80人，包括外交部、工業部、畜牧業部、央行行長等多位高官，以及一眾商業團體代表，充分體現了其務實的國家利益優先取向。

對于烏拉圭來說，對華經貿合作對促進本國經濟發展至關重要。自2013年以來，中國長期保持著烏拉圭第一大貿易伙伴的地位。中國向烏拉圭購買大量大豆、牛肉、紙漿，烏拉圭向中國購買電動汽車等綠色產品與設備。2025年，兩國貨物貿易額達71.9億美元，保持兩位數增長。不久前，拉美最大區域經濟一體化組織——南方共同市場與歐盟達成了歷史性的自由貿易協定，烏拉圭也是南共市一員。在此基礎上，奧爾西政府明確支持與中國開展自由貿易協定談判，為對華經貿打開更廣闊的市場空間。通過深化與中國、歐洲等全球伙伴的合作關系，烏拉圭獲得了實實在在的經濟利益，避免了陷入“選邊站隊”“零和博弈”下的經濟陷阱。

03

良好的國內治理是烏拉圭戰略自主的底氣

近年來，許多拉美國家都遭受了社會治理困境的困擾。區域內，有的國家常年通脹率、失業率高企，人民流離失所，甚至被迫成為移民逃往他國；有的國家6年內換了6任總統，國家領袖“走馬燈”般輪換，多方政治勢力惡斗，政府空轉現象加劇；有國家左右翼極化對抗明顯，社會撕裂嚴重，不同社會群體矛盾激化。這些國家治理混亂現象，不僅極大地削弱了政府治理的嚴肅性，也導致國家面對外部壓力時，缺乏一致對外的韌性。

相比之下，烏拉圭堪稱該地區乃至全球政治穩定的典范。自1985年民主選舉政府回歸以來，權力交接總體平穩有序。奧爾西政府同樣強調國內各方需要合作與溝通，提倡在社會福利與經濟活力間尋求平衡，反對極端個人自由主義觀念，同時強調保障更公平的收入分配，并延續烏拉圭回歸民主治理以來始終奉行的市場經濟運行原則。奧爾西政府還強調，安全是民主的保障，提出“國家公共安全計劃”，建立綜合犯罪打擊系統。作為拉美國家，烏拉圭避免了區域內常見的“府院之爭”“黨爭內訌”，為國家對外戰略執行提供了堅實的國內支撐。奧爾西此次“高調”訪華，正是基于國內治理底氣的戰略自信表現。

04

展望：讓人民生活更美好

攜手國際合作共創美好世界

綜上所述，烏拉圭作為國際社會公認的模范生，正展現其獨特治理之道：對內，強化國家治理體系和治理能力，優先保障國家利益，切實改善民生福祉；對外，抵制霸權脅迫，拒絕對大國指令的盲從，拒絕大國誘使選邊站隊或參與魯莽對抗的空頭支票。烏拉圭通過務實合作拓展戰略空間，以國內穩定為根基鞏固外交根基。“南美瑞士”的務實之道，為當今世界各國應對大國競爭、保持獨立自主提供了重要國際模板。

英文原文

Uruguayan President Yamandu Orsi is paying a state visit to China, becoming the first President from Latin America to visit after the Chinese government's formal release of its 3rd

China's Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean

. Uruguay, known by the world as the "Switzerland of South America," is showing its wisdom to increase its independence, autonomy and advance multilateralism in the changing world.

What is the biggest external challenge for Uruguay and Latin America nowadays?

Nowadays, for Uruguay and most of the countries in Latin America, the biggest external challenge is believed to come from within their neighborhood, namely the United States. The Latin American countries lie in the Western Hemisphere, and the US has been recently releasing its so-called new Western Hemisphere strategy.

The latest National Security Strategy (NSS), the 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS), and other related documents, all show that the US is about to deploy a new strategy for the Western Hemisphere, called Trump's Monroe Doctrine (or the "Donroe Doctrine"). The new strategy intends to only allow Western Hemisphere countries to cooperate internally instead of with other countries in the world. Many global media outlets and scholars have explained this new strategy well. It is clear that the US wants to control all the resources in the hemisphere for itself. As an example, the recent seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US was seen as an attempt to control crude oil in Venezuela.

Against this backdrop, which many call threats, the Orsi administration clearly has its own strategic ideas and goals. Looking at the

Bases Programáticas 2025-2030

by Frente Amplio, President Orsi and his team plan to engage diplomatically with positivity, applying principles of sovereignty, autonomy and multilateralism.

Through his visit to China, Orsi aims to send a clear signal to Washington: Uruguay has long upheld an independent, multilateral diplomatic tradition, and Montevideo will not accept Washington's so-called New Western Hemisphere strategy. This undoubtedly constitutes a forceful rebuttal to the American Monroe Doctrine hegemony.

Strengthening practical cooperation with China to advance national interests

In today's challenging world, it seems to be obvious that if a country can steadfastly champion multilateralism, promote global multipolarity, and maintain sound relations with all partners, then it can ensure the maximization of its national interests. And that is what Uruguay has been doing.

Reports indicate that Orsi's delegation will exceed 80 members, including senior officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fishes, and the central bank, alongside numerous representatives from business associations, etc., which fully reflects Uruguay's pragmatic orientation prioritizing its own national interests.

For Uruguay, economic and trade cooperation with China is indispensable for advancing its development. Since 2013, China has consistently been Uruguay's largest goods trading partner. China serves as the primary market for Uruguayan exports of soybeans, beef, and pulp, while Uruguay is a significant buyer of China's green products, such as EV vehicles.

Recently, the MERCOSUR (Southern Common Market) has just concluded a historic free trade agreement with the European Union. Building upon this achievement, the Orsi administration can also promote negotiations for a free trade agreement with China during this trip, thereby opening broader market opportunities for economic and trade relations with China.

By deepening cooperative ties with China, Europe and other nations worldwide, Uruguay is securing tangible economic benefits while avoiding the economic pitfalls of being drawn into zero-sum games or forced to choose sides.

Sound domestic governance underpins Uruguay's strategic autonomy and independence

Unfortunately, many Latin American countries have been facing governance difficulties in the recent years. Within the region, there are countries which have seen six presidents in six years, with leaders rotating like a revolving door, showcasing fierce political infighting paralyzing governments. There are countries enduring chronic high inflation and unemployment, forcing citizens into displacement or even migration abroad. There are countries having polarization between left and right wings, which deepens the social divisions and intensifies conflicts between different groups.

Such governance difficulties or sometimes even chaos not only severely undermines the credibility of government administration, but also leaves the countries lacking cohesive resilience when confronting external pressures.

Uruguay exemplifies the distinctive political stability in the region. Since the elections in 1984, power transitions have generally proceeded smoothly. The Orsi administration similarly emphasizes the necessity of cooperation and communication among domestic stakeholders. It upholds a balanced approach to social welfare and economic vitality, opposing extreme individualistic notions of liberty, while safeguarding more equitable income distribution, and maintaining the market economy operating principles that have been consistently upheld since 1985.

Stressing that security underpins democracy, it has proposed a "National Public Safety Plan" to establish a comprehensive crime-fighting system. As a Latin American country, Uruguay has avoided the regionally prevalent conflicts between the executive and legislative branches, as also the destructive partisan infighting, thereby providing robust domestic support for its foreign strategy.

President Orsi's high-profile visit to China reflects his strategic confidence, underpinned by good domestic governance. When unity prevails internally, external pressures struggle to undermine a nation's resolve to make sound choices.

Outlook: To give people a better life and to cooperate internationally toward a better world

Uruguay, widely recognized as a model student in the international community, is showcasing its approach domestically. The country is prioritizing national interests by strengthening governance and improving citizens' livelihoods. Externally, Uruguay is resisting hegemonic intimidation and blind obedience to directives from major powers. The country is also rejecting the temptation of empty promises from great powers to choose sides or engage in reckless confrontation.

Uruguay has been expanding its strategic space through pragmatic cooperation and fortifies its diplomatic foundations with domestic stability. The pragmatic approach of the "Switzerland of South America" serves as a vital model for navigating great power competition, and to keep its own independence and autonomy.

歡迎

加入人大重陽社群

為增進與粉絲們的互動，讓大家有更好的交流體驗，人大重陽建立了“企業”“學術”兩大社群，歡迎感興趣的朋友掃描上方二維碼添加人大重陽工作人員的微信（rdcy2013sph）備注姓名、單位、職務及想加入的群聊，審核通過后工作人員會將您拉入群內。

// 人大重陽

RDCY

中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立于2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學捐贈并設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。

作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4個中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關系、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。

別忘了“點贊”+“轉發”