做好迎接更高油價的準備.. 260413

注：本文原發(fā)于深度星球北京時間4月11日的內容，部分內容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

Sean's take : https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

We've seen investor sentiment and positioning flip this week after a temporary ceasefire deal early in the week. Equities jumped, crude dumped, and VIX cooled off. This came after last week's bounces from key support levels across several key names. A few key indicators are flashing signs of a reversal from bearish to bullish. However, the most important one remains crude oil, which, despite all the charades Trump is trying to put on to mask his defeat, remains in a bullish trend. Oil price differentials have converged back to pre-war levels.

在周初達成一項臨時停火協(xié)議后，投資者情緒與倉位出現(xiàn)了逆轉。股市飆升，原油暴跌，波動率指數(shù)降溫。在此之前，上周多個關鍵標的均從關鍵支撐位反彈。一些關鍵指標正在閃爍著從看空轉向看多的反轉信號。然而，最重要的指標仍然是原油，盡管特朗普試圖粉飾其失敗，但原油依然處于看漲趨勢之中。 原油價差已收斂至戰(zhàn)前水平。

圖：全球原油基準（Global Crude Benchmarks，日線，截至2026-04-10）

CL posted a clean break last Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. It then tested our multi-year resistance around 117 before reversing sharply lower on the temporary ceasefire deal. It is now sitting on major support as the world watches the negotiations this weekend. A failure to reopen the Strait will send crude back to test the major resistance around 117, after which comes 140, and then 180-200. If a reopening of the Strait is agreed upon and put on a clear timetable, CL will start heading back into the 80s.

上周三晚特朗普就伊朗戰(zhàn)爭發(fā)表了令人失望的講話后，WTI原油（CL）在上周四實現(xiàn)了干脆的向上突破。隨后，原油測試了我們指出的117附近的多重年度阻力位，之后因臨時停火協(xié)議而大幅反轉走低。目前，全世界都在關注本周末的談判，原油正處于重要支撐位上方。如果海峽未能重新開放，原油將回升并再次測試117附近的主要阻力位，突破后將看向140，然后是180-200。如果各方就重新開放海峽達成一致并制定明確的時間表，WTI原油將開始回落至80美元區(qū)間。

圖：WTI原油期貨（CL，日線，截至2026-04-10）

圖：WTI原油期貨（CL，月線，截至2026-04-10）

A meaningful breach from the box consolidation. If it doesn't reclaim the box in the next few sessions, it's likely to head lower.

這是一次對箱體震蕩區(qū)間的有效跌破。如果不能在接下來的幾個交易日內收復該箱體，大概率將進一步走低。

圖： 布倫特原油期貨（BZ，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Gold faces significant resistance around the 4770 level. It has attempted to thrust higher since Wednesday, but could not hold above 4770 into the close. A clean break above this key resistance will open the door to more upside. If it starts to reverse from here, the major trendline around 4.1K comes into play.

黃金在4770點位附近面臨重大阻力。自周三以來，金價試圖向上突圍，但收盤未能企穩(wěn)于4770上方。如果能干凈利落地突破這一關鍵阻力位，將打開進一步上漲的空間。如果從當前位置開始反轉，4.1K附近的主要趨勢線將成為關鍵支撐。

圖：黃金（Gold，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Silver needs to climb above 79 to see more upside.

白銀需要攀升至79上方才能看到更多上漲空間。

圖：白銀（Silver，日線，截至2026-04-10）

After backtesting the key 5.55 level from above earlier this week, it has put in a nice, clean thrust higher. For now, the structure has turned from bearish to bullish. Unless we see an escalation in the Middle East, copper is set to head higher to test the upper channel.

銅價在本周初自上而下回測了5.55的關鍵支撐位后，走出了漂亮、利落的上攻行情。目前來看，技術形態(tài)已由看空轉為看多。除非中東局勢升級，否則銅價有望走高，測試通道上軌。

圖：銅期貨（HG，日線，截至2026-04-10）

DXY gapped down following the ceasefire deal. 99 remains the key level to watch, and DXY has struggled to post a clean close above this level since the ceasefire deal. For now, it looks bearish. This supports equities and gold in the short term.

美元指數(shù)在停火協(xié)議達成后向下跳空。99仍然是需要關注的關鍵點位，自停火協(xié)議以來，美元指數(shù)一直未能明確收于該水平上方。目前來看，美元走勢偏空。這在短期內對股市和黃金構成支撐。

圖：美元指數(shù)（DXY，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Yields are flat this week despite the ceasefire headlines, and U 2Y yields are still hanging on to the key 3.8% level. The equity market seems to have bought into the idea of a permanent peace deal and a reopening of the Strait, but the bond market disagrees. As long as the war drags on, we should see higher oil prices for longer higher inflation expectations>higher yields>lower equity multiples especially for long-duration names such as the M7. As long as the Strait is not back in business, we should expect higher oil prices and higher yields across the globe.

盡管有停火的頭條新聞，但本周收益率表現(xiàn)平平，美國2年期國債收益率仍堅守在3.8%的關鍵水平。股票市場似乎已經(jīng)買入了永久和平協(xié)議和海峽重新開放的預期，但債券市場并不認同。只要戰(zhàn)爭拖延下去，我們就應該會看到油價維持在更高水平的時間更長，從而推高通脹預期 > 推高收益率 > 壓低股票估值乘數(shù)，特別是對于如“科技七巨頭”（M7）等長久期資產(chǎn)而言。只要海峽沒有恢復通航，我們就應預期全球油價和收益率都將走高。

圖： 美國2年期國債收益率（US2Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

In the short term, 3.8% and 3.6% are the key support levels to watch, while 4% acts as resistance. Should yields start to grind higher from the current level, a retest of the recent high around 4% is very much in play.

短期內，3.8%和3.6%是需要關注的關鍵支撐位，而4%則是阻力位。如果收益率從當前水平開始震蕩攀升，則極有可能重新測試4%附近的近期高點。

圖：美國2年期國債收益率（US2Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

圖：美國10年期國債收益率（US10Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

US30Y left a fakeout before reversing lower back below the resistance this week. It remains a key asset to monitor, as a confirmed breakout would bring devastating consequences for global equities.

美國30年期國債收益率本周在走出假突破后，反轉回落至阻力位下方。它仍是需要監(jiān)控的關鍵資產(chǎn)，因為一旦確認有效突破，將對全球股市帶來毀滅性的后果。

圖：美國30年期國債收益率（US30Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

VIX posted a clean break below the key trendline support following the ceasefire deal. This structure is not supportive of our ES shorts. It must climb back above the trendline early next week; otherwise, we face an increasingly strong buffer against equity downside.

波動率指數(shù)在停火協(xié)議達成后，干脆利落地跌破了關鍵的趨勢線支撐。這種結構對我們的標普500期貨（ES）空頭倉位不利。它必須在下周初重新攀升至該趨勢線之上；否則，我們將面臨股市下行過程中越來越強的緩沖阻力。

圖：波動率指數(shù)（VIX，日線，截至2026-04-10）

We went short SPX before the war started, called the bottom when SPX was trading around 6370, and warned of significant upside risk should a ceasefire deal be reached before Tuesday's deadline. We turned bearish again this Thursday, shorting near the highs. I also posted an article on X yesterday regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations. View the translated version here. A clean breach above the downtrend resistance around 6870 (ES=6910) should invalidate my downside thesis and open the door to new ATHs. The risk-reward on this setup is too asymmetric to ignore.

我們在戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)前做空了標普500指數(shù)，在標普交投于6370點附近時精準抄底，并警告稱如果周二最后期限前達成停火協(xié)議，將存在巨大的上行風險。本周四我們再次轉為看空，在接近高點的位置建立了空倉。我昨天還在X（原Twitter）上發(fā)布了一篇關于美伊談判的文章。

如果能有效突破6870附近的下行趨勢阻力位（ES=6910），我的看跌邏輯將被證偽，并打開通往歷史新高的大門。這一交易設置的風險收益比極具不對稱優(yōu)勢，不容忽視。

圖：標普500指數(shù)（SPX，日線，截至2026-04-10）

NDX backtested the major trendline from below on Friday. A clean break above it should invalidate my downside thesis, and the market would gradually turn back to the Al theme.

納斯達克100指數(shù)周五自下而上回測了主要趨勢線。如果能有效突破該趨勢線，將證偽我的看跌邏輯，市場將逐步回歸AI主線。

圖：納斯達克100指數(shù)（NDX，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Dow bounced precisely from our 45K support level.

道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)精準地從我們給出的45000點支撐位反彈。

圖：道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（DJI，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Backtesting the uptrend resistance from below. A clean break will open the door to a new ATH.

羅素2000指數(shù)正自下而上回測上行趨勢阻力位。若能有效突破，將打開通往歷史新高的大門。

圖：羅素2000指數(shù)（RUT，日線，截至2026-04-10）

圖：日經(jīng)225指數(shù)（NIKKEI，日線，截至2026-04-10）

印度Nifty 50指數(shù)、富時100指數(shù)、半導體ETF、NVDA、GOOGL、TSLA、PLTR、MSFT、META、AMZN、AAPL...

Good luck and Godspeed!

祝各位好運，交易順利！

完整內容訂閱鏈接：Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

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