為期兩周的停火協議最終是否會演變成永久停火？ 260409

注：本文原發于深度星球北京時間4月8日的內容，部分內容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

Market reaction to the ceasefire headline is exceedingly positive, just as I warned before the market closed yesterday. Note that CL reversed exactly at the multi-year resistance I gave out when the war started. CL is now sitting on a very important support. Despite the impact of the ceasefire deal, CL remains in a bull trend so long as it stays above 94.

正如我在昨日收盤前所提示的那樣，市場對停火頭條新聞的反應極其積極。請注意，WTI原油（CL）正好在我于開戰時給出的多年阻力位處發生了反轉。目前CL正處于一個非常重要的支撐位上。盡管受到停火協議的沖擊，但只要CL維持在94上方，就依然處于多頭趨勢中。

SPX is set to open around 6.8K, which is a very important pivot to reclaim if it aims to head higher. NDX is set to backtest the major trendline from below as well. DXY below 99 and US 2Y yields below 3.8% are both supportive of equities and gold.

標普500指數（SPX）預計將在6.8K附近開盤，如果大盤想要繼續上攻，這是一個必須收復的關鍵樞軸位。納斯達克100指數（NDX）也準備從下方反抽測試關鍵趨勢線。美元指數（DXY）低于99，以及美國2年期國債收益率低于3.8%，這兩者均對股市和黃金構成支撐。

Whether this two-week ceasefire turns into a permanent ceasefire or atwo-day ceasefire remains unknown. Price action will be telling: a break above SPX = 6.8K and NDX = 25.1K, coupled with DXY below 99 and CL below 94, would suggest a genuine will to cease fire. If price struggles to break through, it may suggest otherwise.

這份為期兩周的停火協議最終會演變成永久停火，還是僅僅是一場“兩日停火”，目前仍是未知數。價格行為將給出答案：如果SPX向上突破6.8K、NDX突破25.1K，同時伴隨DXY跌破99、CL跌破94，這將表明達成停火的真實意愿。如果價格遲遲無法實現突破，則可能暗示情況恰恰相反。

Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

本文所涉及一切內容僅供分享參考，接收人不因閱讀本文而被視為我方客戶，也不構成向任何人發出出售或購買證券或其他投資標的的邀請，更不構成交易依據。市場有風險，投資需謹慎，本文所有信息及觀點均不構成任何投資建議；過往業績不代表未來表現，投資者應依據自身風險承受能力進行審慎評估、獨立決策并自行承擔全部責任。任何情況下，我方均不對因使用本文內容而產生的任何損失承擔責任。相關數據可能存在滯后或誤差，我方不對信息的完整性及準確性承擔法律責任。