播客推廣：美輪美換2024版第一期——四年一度的美國輪盤賭又開局了

四年一輪回, 又到了播客重拳出擊的時候了！

這次選美3.0播客，立下了至少要做到25年1月的Flag，相信應該沒啥大問題。

RSS 鏈接 https://americanroulette.typlog.io/episodes/republican-primary-preview

APPLE播客鏈接 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/美輪美換/id1704770003

油管地址 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY5UQ3-8fn0

【聊了什么 What We Talked About】 美國大選年又來了，我們又憋不住想聊美國政治了。四年一度的大選，如同一場輪盤賭，賭的是美國乃至全世界的命運。共和黨初選在即，司法麻煩不斷的特朗普依然在民調中遙遙領先，卻選擇跳過初選辯論；建制派精英和金主們試圖帶共和黨走出特朗普的陰影，無奈選民并不買賬；毫無政治經驗的“網紅”Ramaswamy異軍突起，上升勢頭猛烈。2024年的大選，是不是最終又會是4年前特朗普vs.拜登的重演？

With another U.S. election year just around the corner, we can’t help but take a deep dive into American politics once more. Every four years, it feels like we’re playing a game of roulette, betting on the fate of the United States and even the entire world. In this episode, we survey the current landscape ahead of the Republican primaries: Donald Trump — plagued by legal troubles — continues to lead in the polls. He chose to skip the very first primary debate. On the other hand, the GOP establishment elites and their donors are trying to lead the Republican Party out of Trump's shadow, but voters are not convinced. The politically inexperienced "internet celebrity" Vivek Ramaswamy has risen in popularity unexpectedly and gained a strong momentum. Will the 2024 election ultimately be a replay of four years ago, ending with Trump vs. Biden? Let’s find out.

【時間軸 Timeline】

• 3:43 2024年共和黨初選的時間線和關鍵節點

• 11:13 共和黨主要候選人盤點

• 14:38 力爭上游的建制派精英—Ron DeSantis、Mike Pence、Tim Scott和Nikki Haley

• 37:55 異軍突起的局外人—Vivek Ramaswamy

• 41:59 被起訴4次的特朗普民調不降反升，共和黨選民為何對他不離不棄

• 50:44 跳過辯論的特朗普打的是什么算盤，其他候選人還有機會通過初選辯論翻盤嗎？

• 1:01:46 民主黨一邊拜登可以高枕無憂了嗎？RFK Jr.的崛起和小兒子的司法危機會對拜登造成威脅嗎？

• 1:07:39 我們不負責任地預測了一下共和黨初選以及2024年大選的最終結果

• 3:43 The 2024 Republican primary timeline and key milestones

• 11:13 Overview of the major Republican candidates

• 14:38 Establishment elites aiming high: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley

• 37:55 Outsider rising unexpectedly — Vivek Ramaswamy

• 41:59 Trump is facing four lawsuits, yet his poll numbers continue to rise. Why do Republican voters remain loyal to him?

• 50:44 Why can Trump afford to skip the primary debates? Can other candidates get ahead through these debates?

• 1:01:46 On the Democrats’ side, can Joe Biden afford to sit back and relax? Will the rise of RFK Jr. and his son Hunter Biden’s legal troubles pose a threat to Biden?

• 1:07:39 We made some (irresponsible) predictions about the Republican primaries and the final outcome of the 2024 election

【我們是誰 Who We Are】

美輪美換是一檔深入探討當今美國政治的中文播客。

美輪美換的前身是“選·美 iAmElection”，一檔由游天龍、talich、林垚、莊巧祎等人于2015年創立的中文播客，選·美聚集了一群關心美國政治的學者、律師、媒體人、觀察者和愛好者，在2016年大選前后吸引了大量的聽眾和讀者，成為一檔現象級的播客。2020年大選前，talich等人重新推出了“美輪美換”，更新了16集。2023年，新一輪美國大選即將開始，我們決定將選·美和美輪美換的傳統延續下去，推出新版的“美輪美換”播客。

我們的主播：

• 王浩嵐：美國政治愛好者，嵐目公眾號主筆兼消息二道販子

• Lokin：美國法學院學生，即將成為一名紐約訴訟律師。

• 曹起曈：美國政治經濟學PhD，政治行為研究者。

• 小華：媒體人，美政觀察者

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美輪美換" with 16 new episodes.

In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美輪美換” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美輪美換 The American Roulette.”

Our Hosts:

• 王浩嵐 (Haolan Wang)：American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

• Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

• 曹起曈 (Qitong Cao): PhD in American political economy, political behavior researcher

• 小華 (Xiao Hua): Media professional, political observer

【拓展鏈接 The Links】

黑馬閃耀，群雄相爭第二的詭異局面——簡評共和黨第一次初選辯論

【支持我們 Support Us】 如果喜歡這期節目并愿意想要給我們買杯咖啡：

• 眾籌平臺鏈接：http://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

• 合作投稿郵箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

• Support us on Patreon: http://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

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