我是領英LinkedIn 高管，我看到職業(yè)階梯的底部正在斷裂

作者：Aneesh Raman

Mr. Raman is the chief economic opportunity officer at LinkedIn.
Raman 先生是 LinkedIn 的首席經(jīng)濟機會官。

There are growing signs that artificial intelligence poses a real threat to a substantial number of the jobs that normally serve as the first step for each new generation of young workers. Uncertainty around tariffs and global trade is likely to only accelerate that pressure, just as millions of 2025 graduates enter the work force.

越來越多的跡象表明，人工智能對大量工作構(gòu)成了真正的威脅，而這些工作通常是每一代新一代年輕工人的第一步。?關稅和全球貿(mào)易的不確定性可能只會加速這種壓力，就像數(shù)百萬 2025 年畢業(yè)生進入勞動力市場一樣。

We saw what happened in the 1980s when our manufacturing sector steeply declined. Now it is our office workers who are staring down the same kind of technological and economic disruption.

我們看到了 1980 年代制造業(yè)急劇衰落時發(fā)生的事情。現(xiàn)在，我們的辦公室工作人員正在盯著同樣類型的技術和經(jīng)濟顛覆。

Breaking first is the bottom rung of the career ladder. In tech, advanced coding tools are creeping into the tasks of writing simple code and debugging — the ways junior developers gain experience. In law firms, junior paralegals and first-year associates who once cut their teeth on document review are handing weeks of work over to A.I. tools to complete in a matter of hours. And across retailers, A.I. chatbots and automated customer service tools are taking on duties once assigned to young associates.

先突破是職業(yè)階梯的底層。在技術領域，高級編碼工具正在悄悄滲透到編寫簡單代碼和調(diào)試的任務中，這是初級開發(fā)人員獲得經(jīng)驗的方式。在律師事務所?，曾經(jīng)擅長文件審查的初級律師助理和一年級律師正在將數(shù)周的工作交給 AI 工具，以便在幾個小時內(nèi)完成。在零售商中，AI 聊天機器人和自動化客戶服務工具正在承擔曾經(jīng)分配給年輕員工的職責。

These changes coincide with a shift appearing in the latest employment numbers. The unemployment rate for college grads has risen 30 percent since September 2022, compared with about 18 percent for all workers.

這些變化與最新就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)中出現(xiàn)的變化相吻合。自 2022 年 9 月以來，大學畢業(yè)生的失業(yè)率上升了 30%， 而所有工人的失業(yè)率約為 18%。

And while LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Index, a measure of job and career confidence across nearly 500,000 professionals, is hitting new lows amid general uncertainty, members of Generation Z are more pessimistic about their futures than any other age group out there.

與此同時，在我們最近對 LinkedIn 上 3,000 多名副總裁或更高級別的高管進行的調(diào)查中，63% 的人同意 AI 最終將承擔目前分配給入門級員工的一些平凡任務。

Meanwhile, in our recent survey of over 3,000 executives on LinkedIn at the vice president level or higher, 63 percent agreed that A.I. will eventually take on some of the mundane tasks currently allocated to their entry-level employees.

雖然 LinkedIn 的員工信心指數(shù)?（衡量近 500,000 名專業(yè)人士的工作和職業(yè)信心）在普遍的不確定性中創(chuàng)下新低，但 Z 世代的成員對自己的未來比其他任何年齡段的人都更加悲觀?。