大洋馬夫“國際加油站”第9期：美俄之間對耗才是我們看待烏克蘭戰爭的最大利益“公約數”

世事混沌，不能風光用盡。國際關系復雜微妙，唯有利益不變。針對歐洲的烏克蘭戰爭之事，我們目前的態度是，俄羅斯不能倒下，美國不能稱霸。也就是說，一個美俄兩大國通過烏克蘭戰爭的方式互耗，才能最大限度地消耗著整個西方世界，透支美西方地能量，最終耗死他們。美俄兩國原本是在“興頭上”打起來的（當然美國通過烏克蘭這個可憐蟲進行的），現在的雙方處于戰略的“僵硬”階段和戰術的回合拉鋸時期，邊打邊談，私下里不僅存在經貿往來，還有某些不能見光的交易呢！誰都想吃口大的，誰都不會輕易讓步，只不過肉疼的是烏克蘭而已。

盡管美俄并沒有直接的進行軍事對耗，美軍并沒有直接下場烏克蘭戰爭，但間接對耗也是一種耗死人的方法。如今的俄羅斯和美國就是如此。雙方都在通過烏克蘭戰爭這種方式來詮釋著各自的利益需求的同時，也在削弱彼此的力量；要知道戰爭是沖突地最高級形式，最能透支一個國家的綜合國力。那么、只有通過這種方式不斷地對耗才能夠讓美俄雙方不放棄對著干仗的動作，持續性的互相對罵，互相耗盡自己的資源，到了最后關頭，我們才能夠出手，一錘定乾坤。對于我們來說，現在的定力很重要。

以鷸蚌相爭，漁翁得利的這種“中立”的態度和方式處置之，才能得到實實在在的好處和利益。因為無論是美國也好，俄羅斯也罷，他們都有一種天然的交易心理和行為，即在利益面前可以放棄一切，只要籌碼夠大、價錢夠高、利益夠足，他們是可以出賣一切的，包括土地、資源、女人，也包括他們自己的肉體和靈魂在內的一切東西。何況對于他人的利益呢？同時在他們眼中來看，國土只不過是一種可以直接來進行買賣交易的標的（物）而已，沒有什么可以放棄不了的。這就是資本主義所體現的嘴臉和性質，烏克蘭注定只能成為一枚棋子和一個并不太無辜的犧牲品。

（以下是英文版 The next is English edtion）

The 9th Episode of "Global Refuel": The Mutual Exhaustion Between the U.S. and Russia Is the Greatest Common Interest for Viewing the Ukraine War

(Tuesday Afternoon, December 16, 2025)

The world is chaotic, and one cannot exhaust all advantages. International relations are complex and subtle, with only interests remaining constant. Regarding the Ukraine war in Europe, our current stance is that Russia must not collapse, and the U.S. must not achieve hegemony. In other words, it is the mutual exhaustion between the two major powers, the U.S. and Russia, through the Ukraine war that will maximally drain the Western world, deplete the energy of the U.S. and the West, and ultimately wear them down. The U.S. and Russia originally entered the conflict with enthusiasm (though the U.S. acted through the pitiable pawn of Ukraine). Now, both sides are in a phase of strategic "rigidity" and tactical back-and-forth stalemate, fighting while negotiating. Behind the scenes, not only do economic and trade exchanges persist, but there are also certain undisclosed dealings! Each side seeks a larger share, and neither is willing to yield easily—only Ukraine bears the brunt of the pain.

Although the U.S. and Russia are not directly engaged in military confrontation, with U.S. troops not directly participating in the Ukraine war, indirect mutual exhaustion remains a method of attrition. This is precisely the current situation between Russia and the U.S. Both sides are using the Ukraine war to articulate their respective interests while simultaneously weakening each other's strength. It is important to recognize that war is the highest form of conflict and the most capable of depleting a nation's comprehensive power. Only through this method of continuous mutual attrition can the U.S. and Russia be compelled to maintain their confrontational actions, persistently exchanging accusations and exhausting their resources. When the critical moment arrives, we will be able to intervene decisively and settle the matter. For us, maintaining strategic patience at this stage is crucial.

Adopting a "neutral" approach akin to "the snipe and the clam grappling, with the fisherman reaping the reward" is the way to secure tangible benefits and interests. Whether it is the U.S. or Russia, both possess an inherent transactional mindset and behavior: in the face of sufficient interests, they are willing to abandon everything. As long as the stakes are high enough, the price is right, and the benefits are substantial, they can betray anything—including land, resources, women, and even their own bodies and souls. How much more so the interests of others? In their eyes, national territory is merely an object to be bought and sold, with nothing truly irreplaceable. This reflects the nature and demeanor of capitalism. Ukraine is destined to become nothing more than a pawn and a not-entirely-innocent sacrifice.