航班取消，價(jià)格暴漲……你的五一機(jī)票還好嗎？

伊朗局勢(shì)持續(xù)不明朗，不斷上漲的航空燃油價(jià)格對(duì)航空業(yè)的影響也日益加劇。從取消航班到調(diào)高票價(jià)，亞洲航司正在使出渾身解數(shù)應(yīng)對(duì)這場(chǎng)燃油供應(yīng)危機(jī)。

With the Middle East crisis heightening jet fuel supply risks, Asian airlines are taking action, to cope with supply instability and rising costs, from cutting flights to raising fares.

航空燃油通常占航空公司運(yùn)營(yíng)成本的25-30%。據(jù)國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù)，截至4月17日的一周，國(guó)際航空燃油均價(jià)為每桶184.64美元。雖然較本月初的200美元以上有所回落，但對(duì)比2月28日美以對(duì)伊朗發(fā)動(dòng)襲擊前約90美元的價(jià)格，短短兩個(gè)月不到的時(shí)間急升一倍。

Jet fuel — which accounts for about 25-30 percent of airline operating costs — saw average prices fall 6.7 percent to $184.64 per barrel in the week ending April 17 after hitting over $200 earlier this month, according to the price monitor of the International Air Transport Association.

圖源：東方IC

4月20日，日本兩大航空公司全日空與日本航空宣布，原定6月實(shí)施的燃油附加費(fèi)調(diào)整將提前至5月1日起執(zhí)行。以全日航空為例，加價(jià)后從日本飛往歐洲和北美的單程燃油附加費(fèi)將從31900日元（約1365元）增加至56,000日元。

韓國(guó)主要航司也在上周宣布，5月的燃油附加費(fèi)將上調(diào)至該國(guó)歷史最高水平。這是韓國(guó)現(xiàn)行燃油附加費(fèi)體系自2016年采用以來(lái)，首次適用最高檔標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。其中大韓航空從韓國(guó)往返青島、大連等短途航線將收取7.5萬(wàn)韓元（346元），而往返歐洲和美洲則需多支付超過(guò)100萬(wàn)韓元。

Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, Japan's two largest airlines, said on Monday that they will double their international fuel surcharges from May 1.

South Korean carriers also raised fuel surcharges for May to the highest level in the country's history, reaching Level 33 for the first time, up from Level 18 in April.

With the new price hike, taking Korean Air, the country's largest full-service carrier, for a one-way long-haul trip to New York would require a fuel surcharge of 564,000 won ($383), up over 80 percent.

據(jù)韓國(guó)《中央日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，作為全球最大航空燃油出口國(guó)之一，雖然政府并無(wú)正式限制，但韓國(guó)煉油商目前主要優(yōu)先保障國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)，幾乎暫停出口。

此舉預(yù)計(jì)對(duì)美國(guó)影響最大。標(biāo)普全球海運(yùn)商品數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年，美國(guó)西海岸進(jìn)口的航空燃油中，超過(guò)82%來(lái)自韓國(guó)，日均進(jìn)口量逾10.9萬(wàn)桶，遙遙領(lǐng)先其他供應(yīng)國(guó)。

One of the world's biggest jet fuel exporters, South Korea has been focusing on domestic use and nearly suspended exports, according to Korea JoongAng Daily.

This is expected to affect its major buyers, especially the United States. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, South Korea accounted for over 82 percent of jet fuel imports to the US West Coast.

韓國(guó)仁荷工業(yè)專門(mén)大學(xué)航空經(jīng)營(yíng)學(xué)系教授李輝英（Lee Hwi-young）對(duì)《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》表示，雖然韓國(guó)有數(shù)月的原油儲(chǔ)備，但其加工成航空燃油并出口的能力已幾乎達(dá)到極限。他預(yù)計(jì)，出口可能要等到今年年底才能恢復(fù)正常，而這也要取決于伊朗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的結(jié)果。

"While we have several months of crude oil reserves, our capacity to process it into jet fuel for export has reached its limit," said Lee Hwi-young, a professor in the Department of Airline Service Management and Logistics Systems at Inha Technical College in South Korea.

除了日韓以外，東南亞地區(qū)最容易受到旅游業(yè)相關(guān)沖擊。英國(guó)智庫(kù)牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院4月15日發(fā)布的報(bào)告指出，由于國(guó)際旅客對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和就業(yè)的貢獻(xiàn)較大，菲律賓和泰國(guó)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高。

越南、馬來(lái)西亞和印尼的航空公司均已因燃油庫(kù)存減少而削減航班。泰國(guó)航空也在近日宣布，將于5月取消或減少46條國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際航線的航班及頻次，這些航線包括曼谷連接北京、新加坡及首爾等多個(gè)熱門(mén)目的地。

Jet fuel shortages are constraining aviation capacity across Asia, with Southeast Asia being the most exposed to a tourism-related hit, according to an April 15 report by the British think tank Oxford Economics.

"The Philippines and Thailand appear most exposed to a jet fuel-triggered aviation downturn given the importance of international arrivals to GDP and employment," the report said, adding that airlines in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have cut flights as fuel stocks dwindle.

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)理事長(zhǎng)威利·沃爾什（Willie Walsh）17日在一份聲明中表示，國(guó)際能源署對(duì)潛在航空燃油短缺的評(píng)估令人警醒，預(yù)計(jì)5月底歐洲也會(huì)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)由于航空燃油短缺而取消航班的情況。

While flight cancellations are already happening in Asia, IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said on April 17 that there could be some cancellations in Europe due to a lack of jet fuel by the end of May.

The IATA has also said that even if the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operation, jet fuel prices could take months to normalize.

專家還指出，與擁有穩(wěn)定客戶的大型航空公司相比，油價(jià)上漲將令廉航經(jīng)營(yíng)更困難，因其客戶群體對(duì)票價(jià)更加敏感。如果這種需求狀況持續(xù)一年，廉航將很難生存，甚至面臨破產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Analysts said that the current uncertainty in jet fuel supply and the subsequent increase in fuel surcharges would place low-cost carriers at the biggest risk.

記者：楊涵

跟著China Daily

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