馬斯克：中國似乎聽取了我的所有建議（達沃斯對話實錄中英全文）

作者：馬斯克

來源：財經會議圈

主持人：That was not a large applause. Start again. That's better. Thank you. Yeah, we're going to make this interesting. How many quotes are you going to want after this session? I don't know. Five? Okay. So good afternoon, everyone. It's great to see everybody here. It's been an amazing week here in Davos. Hopefully, everybody saw that we are having meaningful conversations here. Hopefully, everybody agrees that there are some conversations where we may disagree, and many where we may agree. But through those conversations—and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today—the World Economic Forum is here to foster these conversations, to build understandings and also reach resolutions. So this is an important component of who we are and what we do.

主持人：剛才的掌聲不夠熱烈，再來一次。這樣就對了，謝謝大家。接下來我們聊點有意思的。會后你們需要整理多少句語錄？不知道？五句？好的。各位下午好，很高興能和大家相聚在這里。達沃斯的這一周精彩紛呈，希望大家都能感受到，我們在這里開展的都是有意義的交流。或許在一些話題上我們有分歧，更多話題上能達成共識，但希望大家都認同這份交流的價值。而今天早些時候，我們還達成了一項和平協議 —— 這正是世界經濟論壇的意義所在：推動對話、凝聚共識、促成解決。這是我們的立身之本，也是我們的核心使命。

主持人：I'm thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to be here with all of you. So thank you, Elon. You're welcome. I heard about the formation of the peace summit, and I thought, is that a piece? A little piece of Greenland? A tiny piece? Well, we got one. Oh, we want his piece, okay.

主持人：我非常榮幸邀請到埃隆?馬斯克來到現場，他從加州遠道而來，與大家相聚。謝謝你，埃隆，歡迎你。我聽說和平峰會的成立消息時，還打趣道，這是哪一塊 “碎片”？是格陵蘭的一小塊土地嗎？一小塊？好吧，我們總算有了這么一個平臺，也想聽聽馬斯克的獨到見解。

主持人：As you know, I'm pretty proud to be the CEO of BlackRock since we went public. The compounded return of BlackRock for our shareholders has been 21 percent. Since Elon took Tesla public, its compounded return is 43 percent. This is just another advertisement for everyone, especially for Europeans—this is why more citizens should be investing in growth, investing in your countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds had invested with Elon when Tesla went public, and how much return all those pension funds would have earned by investing side by side with Elon in that growth.

主持人：大家都知道，作為貝萊德上市以來的 CEO，我對此深感自豪。貝萊德為股東帶來的復合年回報率達到了 21%，而埃隆帶領特斯拉上市后，公司的復合年回報率高達 43%。我想借著這個數據跟大家說，尤其是歐洲的朋友們，這就是為什么更多民眾應該做成長型投資，投資自己的國家。試想，如果眾多養老基金在特斯拉上市時就選擇跟投埃隆，這些基金如今能獲得多么豐厚的回報。

主持人：It's a spectacular return. There are very few companies, well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has such compounded returns. So congratulations. I like a good measurement. Well, we have incredible teams, and that is the reason for success.

主持人：這樣的回報率堪稱驚艷，如今體量能與特斯拉比肩的企業中，沒有一家能實現如此高的復合回報。恭喜你，埃隆。我向來看重數據結果，而優秀的團隊，正是成就一切的核心。

主持人：So I want to get into the real, meaningful part about technology and its possibilities. I want to talk about AI, robotics, energy, space, and the progress that ultimately comes down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, and execution. Very few people, if anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues—not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies. That's why I thought it important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos.

主持人：接下來，我們聊聊科技的真正價值和未來可能。我想和大家探討人工智能、機器人、能源、航天領域的發展，而這些領域的突破，最終都離不開工程技術、工程準則、規模化生產和落地執行。放眼全球，極少有人能擁有這樣的經驗和毅力，不僅能提出跨領域的科技構想，更能將其一一落地。這也是我認為我們需要在達沃斯展開這場對話的原因。

主持人：You're presently building in AI, robotics, space, and energy all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?

主持人：你如今同時布局人工智能、機器人、航天、能源四大領域，從工程技術的角度來看，這些領域的研發有哪些共通之處？

埃隆?馬斯克：Well, they're all practical technology challenges. But the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization—basically, to maximize the probability that civilization has a great future—and to expand consciousness beyond Earth. For SpaceX, for example, it's about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, to the Moon, to Mars, and eventually to other star systems.

埃隆?馬斯克：它們本質上都是實際的技術難題，但我旗下所有公司的核心目標是一致的：推動人類文明走向更好的未來，盡可能提升人類文明持續發展的概率，同時讓人類的意識走出地球，走向宇宙。以太空探索技術公司（SpaceX）為例，我們的使命就是不斷突破火箭技術，讓人類的生命和意識能延伸到地球之外，先登上月球、火星，最終抵達其他恒星系統。

埃隆?馬斯克：I think we should always view life and consciousness as we know it as precarious and delicate, because to the best of our knowledge, we don't know if life exists anywhere else. I'm often asked if there are aliens among us, and I'll say that I am one. But when I say I'm from the future, they don't believe me. Okay. But if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. We have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So I'm like, I don't know.

埃隆?馬斯克：在我看來，我們必須始終意識到，人類所知的生命和意識，其實脆弱又珍貴。因為就目前的認知而言，我們并不知道宇宙中是否還有其他生命存在。總有人問我，地球上有沒有外星人，我會開玩笑說 “我就是”，但當我說自己來自未來時，沒人相信我。但如果說有誰能知道地球是否有外星人，那一定是我 —— 我們在太空中部署了 9000 顆衛星，卻從未需要為躲避外星飛船而調整軌道，所以我也無從得知答案。

埃隆?馬斯克：The bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare, and it might only be us. If that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. I view it as a tiny candle in a vast darkness—a tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. That's why it's important to make life multiplanetary, such that if there is a natural disaster or man-made disaster on Earth, consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX.

埃隆?馬斯克：歸根結底，我們必須假設，生命和意識在宇宙中是極其稀有的，或許只有人類擁有。如果真是如此，我們就必須拼盡全力，讓這束意識的光芒永不熄滅。在我眼中，人類的意識就像茫茫黑暗中一支微弱的蠟燭，稍有不慎就會熄滅。這也是為什么實現多行星生存如此重要：當地球遭遇自然或人為災難時，人類的意識能得以延續。這就是 SpaceX 的存在意義。

埃隆?馬斯克：Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology, and at this point, we've sort of added to our mission: sustainable abundance. With robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. People often talk about solving global poverty or essentially how to give everyone a very high standard of living. I think the only way to do this is with AI and robotics. Which doesn't mean it's without its issues. We need to be very careful with AI, we need to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. The Terminator movies are great, I love his movies, but we don't want to live in The Terminator, obviously.

埃隆?馬斯克：特斯拉的核心方向顯然是可持續能源技術，而如今我們的使命又增添了一層：實現可持續的物質豐裕。機器人和人工智能技術，正是實現全人類豐裕生活的關鍵。人們總在談論消除全球貧困，探討如何讓所有人都擁有高品質的生活，而我認為，實現這一目標的唯一途徑，就是人工智能和機器人技術。當然，這并非毫無風險，我們必須對人工智能和機器人技術保持敬畏。我們不想陷入詹姆斯?卡梅隆的電影劇情中 ——《終結者》系列很精彩，我很喜歡，但顯然沒人想活在那樣的世界里。

主持人：But if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy—an expansion of the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent. Will that expansion be broad, or is it going to be narrow? And how can we make it broad?

主持人：如果人工智能能實現普及，且幾乎免費，機器人技術也能全面落地，那么全球經濟將迎來爆發式增長，這種增長規模將是前所未有的。但這種增長的紅利會惠及所有人，還是只集中在少數人手中？我們該如何讓其普惠大眾？

埃隆?馬斯克：Yeah, the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. My prediction is that in a benign future scenario, we will make so many robots and develop such advanced AI that they will actually satisfy all human needs. Meaning, at a certain point, you won't even be able to think of something to ask the robot to do—there will be such an abundance of goods and services. Because my prediction is there will be more robots than people.

埃隆?馬斯克：答案必然是普惠，從邏輯上來說，若有大量人形機器人投入使用，經濟產出就是單臺機器人的平均生產率乘以機器人數量。我預測，在未來的良性發展場景中，我們會造出數量極多的機器人，研發出高度先進的人工智能，足以滿足人類的所有需求。屆時，人們甚至想不出還有什么事需要讓機器人去做 —— 因為物質和服務會變得極度豐裕，而我預計，未來機器人的數量會超過人類。

埃隆?馬斯克：So how do you then find human purpose in that scenario? Well, nothing's perfect. But it is a necessary trade-off: you can't have both work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if there is work that has to be done, and only some people can do it, then you can't have abundance—it's narrow, exactly. But if you have billions of humanoid robots, and I think there will be, everyone on Earth is going to have one, and going to want one. Who wouldn't want a robot to watch over your kids, take care of your pet? If you have elderly parents, a lot of people say it's very difficult and expensive to take care of them. It's expensive, and there just aren't enough young people to take care of the old people, right? So if you had a robot that could take care of, protect, and assist elderly parents, I think that would be great—an amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things.

埃隆?馬斯克：那在這樣的場景下，人類的價值該如何體現？當然，凡事都不完美，但這是一種必要的取舍：你無法既讓人類承擔必要的勞作，又實現全民的高度豐裕。因為如果有些工作必須有人做，且只有少數人能勝任，那么豐裕的紅利就只能集中在少數人手中，必然無法普惠。但如果未來有數十億臺人形機器人 —— 我堅信這一天會到來，地球上的每個人都會擁有一臺，也都會想要一臺。誰不想要一臺能照看孩子、照顧寵物的機器人呢？很多人都有年邁的父母，照顧他們不僅難度大，成本也很高，而且如今年輕勞動力的數量根本不足以照顧所有老人，不是嗎？如果有一臺機器人能照料、保護、協助年邁的父母，那會是一件無比美好的事，而我相信，這樣的機器人終會出現。

埃隆?馬斯克：Overall, I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And we are definitely in the most interesting time in history, but I think there are even more interesting times ahead.

埃隆?馬斯克：總的來說，我對未來充滿樂觀。我認為人類正走向一個物質極度豐裕的未來，這真的非常美好。我們如今無疑身處人類歷史上最精彩的時代，而我相信，未來會更加精彩。

主持人：Can we join you in this new era and reverse aging, or are we going to see it happen in our lifetime?

主持人：在這個全新的時代，我們能否和你一起實現衰老逆轉？我們在有生之年能看到這一技術實現嗎？

埃隆?馬斯克：I haven't put much time into the aging research stuff, but I do think it is a very solvable problem. I think when we figure out what causes aging, we'll find it's incredibly obvious—it's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not subtle is because the cells in your body all age at roughly the same rate. I've never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm in my life. So why is that? That means there must be a synchronizing clock—one that synchronizes aging across the 35 trillion cells in your body.

埃隆?馬斯克：我并沒有在衰老研究領域投入太多時間，但我堅信這是一個完全可以解決的問題。我認為，當我們找到衰老的真正原因時，會發現答案其實無比簡單，并非什么復雜的奧秘。我之所以這么說，是因為人體的所有細胞，衰老速度基本一致。我這輩子從沒見過有人左胳膊衰老、右胳膊卻依舊年輕的情況。為什么會這樣？這說明人體中必然存在一個 “同步時鐘”，讓全身 35 萬億個細胞的衰老進程保持同步。

埃隆?馬斯克：There is some benefit to death, by the way. There's a reason why we don't have an extremely long lifespan. Because if people live forever or for a very long time, I think there's some risk of ossification of society—things just getting locked in place. It may become calcified, lacking vibrancy. But that said, do I think we will figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely. I'm looking forward to that.

埃隆?馬斯克：順便說一句，死亡并非毫無意義，人類的壽命之所以有限，是有其原因的。如果人類實現永生或擁有極長的壽命，社會可能會陷入僵化，一切事物都將停滯不前，失去活力。但即便如此，我依然認為，人類終會找到延長壽命、甚至逆轉衰老的方法，而且可能性極高。我對此充滿期待。

主持人：The future you talk about—AI models, autonomous machines, rockets—depends on massive increases in compute, massive increases in energy, inexpensive energy, and manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to getting there? And once again, with all that expenditure, how can we make sure that the benefits are broad and not narrow?

主持人：你所描繪的未來 —— 人工智能模型、自主機器、火箭技術，都依賴于算力的大幅提升、能源的海量供應、低成本能源的實現，以及規模化生產。實現這一切的瓶頸是什么？此外，面對如此巨大的投入，我們該如何確保其紅利能普惠大眾，而非少數人獨享？

埃隆?馬斯克：I just think it's naturally going to be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI is already very low, and it's dropping every year—almost changing meaningfully on a month-to-month basis. There are open-source models everywhere now, yes. The open-source models only lag the private, closed models by maybe a year. So AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they'll provide AI to the whole world.

埃隆?馬斯克：我認為紅利必然會普惠大眾，因為人工智能企業會竭盡所能吸引更多的客戶。如今人工智能的成本已經很低，而且還在逐年下降，甚至每個月都有顯著的降幅。現在開源的人工智能模型隨處可見，這些開源模型與企業的閉源模型相比，差距僅約一年。所以人工智能企業會不斷拓展用戶群體，讓全球各地的人都能用上人工智能技術。

主持人：But the cost of getting there—the compute, the chips, the fabs, the powering of it all. To me, what are the limiting factors here?

主持人：但要實現這一目標，我們需要面對算力、芯片、晶圓廠、能源供應等諸多成本問題。在你看來，其中最大的瓶頸是什么？

埃隆?馬斯克：Yeah, I think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power—it's just energy. The rate of AI chip production is increasing exponentially, but the rate of new electricity coming online is only about 4 percent a year. It's clear that we're very soon—maybe even this year—going to be producing more chips than we can power on.

埃隆?馬斯克：我認為，人工智能落地應用的核心瓶頸，歸根結底就是電力，也就是能源。目前人工智能芯片的生產規模呈指數級增長，但全球新增的電力供應每年僅約 4%。很明顯，我們很快 —— 甚至今年 —— 就會出現芯片產能遠超供電能力的情況。

埃隆?馬斯克：Except for China. China's growth in electricity production is tremendous.

埃隆?馬斯克：但中國是個例外，中國的電力產能增長十分迅猛。

主持人：Underlying it all is nuclear power, as we speak?

主持人：這背后主要是核電的支撐嗎？

埃隆?馬斯克：Actually, solar is the biggest thing in China. China's solar panel production capacity is 1,500 gigawatts a year, and they're deploying over 1,000 gigawatts of solar every year. For continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly four or five, and that's around 250 gigawatts of steady-state power when paired with batteries. That's a very big number—that's half of the average power usage in the US. The US's average power usage is 500 gigawatts. China, just with solar and batteries, can provide half of the US's total electricity output.

埃隆?馬斯克：其實太陽能才是中國的主力。中國的太陽能電池板年產能達到 1500 吉瓦，年部署量也超過 1000 吉瓦。如果搭配電池儲能系統，將太陽能的間歇性供電換算為持續穩定供電，效率大約會折損四到五成，最終能實現約 250 吉瓦的穩定供電。這是一個驚人的數字，相當于美國平均用電量的一半 —— 美國的平均用電量約為 500 吉瓦。也就是說，中國僅依靠太陽能和儲能電池，就能提供相當于美國一半的電力輸出。

埃隆?馬斯克：Solar is by far the biggest source of energy. And actually, when you look beyond Earth, or even on Earth, the sun accounts for essentially 100 percent of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. The sun is 99.8 percent of the mass of the solar system; Jupiter is about 0.1 percent, and everything else is miscellaneous. Even if you were to burn Jupiter in a fusion reactor, the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100 percent, because Jupiter is only 0.1 percent of the solar system's mass. If you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burned all four Jupiters and everything else, the sun's energy output would still round up to 100 percent. So it's really all about the sun.

埃隆?馬斯克：太陽能是目前最主要的能源來源，而且無論在地球還是宇宙中，太陽幾乎為一切提供了能量，這一點我們必須認清。太陽的質量占整個太陽系的 99.8%，木星約占 0.1%，其余所有天體加起來不過是零頭。即便把木星投入核聚變反應堆燃燒，太陽釋放的能量依舊能占到 100%，因為木星的質量僅占太陽系的 0.1%。就算再把三顆木星送到太陽系，將四顆木星和其他所有天體全部燃燒，太陽的能量占比依舊是 100%。所以，能源的核心，終究是利用好太陽能。

埃隆?馬斯克：That's why one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar-powered AI satellites. Because space is a source of immense power, and you don't need to take up any room on Earth. There's so much room in space, and you can scale to enormous levels—I think ultimately hundreds of terawatts a year.

埃隆?馬斯克：這也是為什么 SpaceX 計劃在未來幾年內發射太陽能人工智能衛星。太空蘊藏著巨大的能源潛力，而且無需占用地球的土地資源。太空的空間無限，我們的能源規模能拓展到驚人的程度 —— 我認為最終能實現每年數百太瓦的供電。

主持人：We've had these conversations before, but what would you tell the audience it would take for the United States to build a solar field large enough to electrify the entire country, and what type of geography would that require? And then let me ask: why aren't we doing it?

主持人：我們之前聊過這個話題，想請你跟大家說說，美國要建一座能為全國供電的太陽能電站，需要具備哪些條件，適合建在哪些地區？另外一個問題是，我們為什么至今沒有這么做？

埃隆?馬斯克：The rough way to think about it is a 100 miles by 100 miles—about 160 kilometers by 160 kilometers—solar field is enough to power the entire United States. A 100-by-100-mile area is a tiny corner of Utah or Nevada—we obviously wouldn't want it all in one place, but it's a very small percentage of the US's total land area to generate all the electricity the US uses. The same is true for Europe: you could take relatively unpopulated areas of Spain or Sicily and generate all the electricity Europe needs.

埃隆?馬斯克：簡單來說，一座 100 英里 ×100 英里（約 160 公里 ×160 公里）的太陽能電站，就足以滿足美國全國的電力需求。這樣一片區域，不過是猶他州或內華達州的一個小角落 —— 當然我們不會把電站都建在一個地方，但這足以說明，僅用美國極少的土地，就能生產出全國所需的全部電力。歐洲也是如此，在西班牙、西西里的人口稀少地區建太陽能電站，就能滿足整個歐洲的用電需求。

主持人：So why do you think there's not a bigger movement towards that here in Europe and in the United States?

主持人：那為什么歐洲和美國至今沒有大力推進這項工程？

埃隆?馬斯克：Well, there is in China. Unfortunately, in the US, the tariff barriers for solar are extremely high, which makes the economics of deploying solar artificially expensive—because China makes almost all the solar panels in the world.

埃隆?馬斯克：但中國卻做到了。不幸的是，美國對太陽能產品設置了極高的關稅壁壘，這讓太陽能的落地成本被人為抬高 —— 畢竟全球的太陽能電池板幾乎都是中國生產的。

主持人：What would it take for Europe or the US to build solar capacity commercially at that scale?

主持人：那對于歐洲和美國來說，要實現規模化的商業太陽能建設，需要做出哪些改變？

埃隆?馬斯克：I can tell you what we're going to do: SpaceX and Tesla are both building up large-scale solar capacity. The SpaceX and Tesla teams are separately working to build 100 gigawatts a year of solar panel manufacturing capacity in the US. That'll probably take about three years or so, but those are pre-big numbers. I encourage others to do the same. We obviously don't control US tariff policy, but for other countries, China makes solar cells that are incredibly low-cost, and I think it would be worth doing large-scale solar projects with them.

埃隆?馬斯克：我可以說說我們的計劃：SpaceX 和特斯拉都在大力布局大規模太陽能產業，兩家公司的團隊正分別在美國推進太陽能電池板生產，目標是實現年產能 100 吉瓦。這一過程大概需要三年時間，目前的數字還只是前期規劃。我也鼓勵其他企業加入進來。我們顯然無法左右美國的關稅政策，但對于其他國家來說，中國生產的太陽能電池板價格極具優勢，與之合作開展大規模太陽能項目，絕對是明智之選。

主持人：I know you're going to be having a couple of big announcements on robotics and what it can do. When I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. You talked about billions of robots—how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized, be functional, and create that abundance you talked about?

主持人：我知道你即將發布多項機器人技術的重磅消息，我去工廠時，你也給我展示過相關的機器人產品。你提到未來會有數十億臺機器人，那這些機器人能多快落地制造業？能多快實現實際應用、具備完整功能，最終創造出你所說的豐裕社會？

埃隆?馬斯克：Even though humanoid robotics will advance very quickly, we already have some Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. We expect that probably later this year, by the end of this year, they'll be doing more complex tasks, still in an industrial environment. And probably sometime next year—by the end of next year—I think we'll be selling humanoid robots to the public. That's when we are confident that they have very high reliability, very high safety, and a wide range of functionality—you can basically ask them to do anything you'd like.

埃隆?馬斯克：人形機器人技術的發展速度會非常快，目前已經有一些特斯拉擎天柱機器人在工廠里完成簡單的工作。我們預計，今年下半年，這些機器人就能在工業場景中完成更復雜的任務。到明年年底，我們有望向公眾發售人形機器人 —— 屆時我們能確保機器人具備極高的可靠性和安全性，同時擁有豐富的功能，大家幾乎可以讓它完成任何想做的事。

主持人：We're already seeing this in cars: the software updates you're doing, it's every quarter now, a software change that upgrades the ability of the autonomous systems in the car.

主持人：其實在汽車領域，我們已經實現了這樣的技術迭代：如今特斯拉的車載自動駕駛系統，每季度都會通過軟件更新提升性能。

埃隆?馬斯克：Yes. In terms of Full Self-Driving software, we update it sometimes once a week. Recently, some insurance companies have said that Tesla's Full Self-Driving is so safe that they're offering customers half-price insurance if they use Tesla Autopilot/FSD in the car—and that usage can be monitored by the insurance company.

埃隆?馬斯克：沒錯，全自動駕駛（FSD）軟件的更新頻率甚至能達到每周一次。最近有保險公司表示，特斯拉的全自動駕駛系統安全性極高，只要車主開啟該系統并接受保險公司的監控，就能享受半價車險。

主持人：Is that part of the agreement?

主持人：這是保險協議的一部分嗎？

埃隆?馬斯克：Yeah.

埃隆?馬斯克：是的。

埃隆?馬斯克：I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. Tesla has rolled out robotaxi service in a few cities, and it'll be very widespread by the end of this year within the US. Then we hope to get supervised self-driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and maybe a similar timeline for China, hopefully.

埃隆?馬斯克：在我看來，自動駕駛汽車的技術問題已經基本解決。特斯拉已經在多個城市推出了無人駕駛出租車服務，今年年底前，這項服務將在美國全面普及。我們也希望能在下個月獲得歐洲的有監督自動駕駛審批，中國的審批也有望在同期落地。

主持人：I want to move to space. Historically, space has been very capital-intensive, and it was historically done by governments. SpaceX changed the whole model, but we've seen it's slow to scale, and now I'm starting to see it ramping up with what you're doing in other areas. Talk to us about how automation and AI are changing the economics of building, preparing for, and operating in space.

主持人：接下來我們聊聊航天領域。在歷史上，航天領域的資金投入巨大，且一直由各國政府主導。SpaceX 徹底改變了這一模式，雖然前期規模化推進較慢，但如今我看到這項事業正在加速。想請你說說，自動化和人工智能技術，如何改變航天領域的研發、籌備和運營成本？

埃隆?馬斯克：Sure.

埃隆?馬斯克：沒問題。

埃隆?馬斯克：The key breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability. No one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage—we've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage; it burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. The cost of that upper stage is equivalent to a small to medium-sized jet.

埃隆?馬斯克：SpaceX 今年希望實現的核心技術突破，是火箭的完全可回收利用。此前從未有企業實現過火箭的完全回收，而這一點，對降低太空探索的成本至關重要。我們已經通過 “獵鷹 9 號” 實現了助推器的回收，至今助推器的回收次數已經超過 500 次，但火箭的上面級仍無法回收，在 “獵鷹 9 號” 的任務中，上面級最終會在再入大氣層時燒毀，而這一上面級的成本，相當于一架中小型客機。

主持人：But with Starship—a giant rocket, the largest flying machine ever made, which we're using for the Mars mission, right?

主持人：而 “星艦”—— 這款人類有史以來最大的飛行器，也是你們用于火星探索的核心火箭，對吧？

埃隆?馬斯克：Yeah, Mars and the Moon, as well as for high-volume satellite launches. With Starship, hopefully this year we should prove full reusability, which will be a profound invention because the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. It's the same sort of economic difference between a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft: if you have to throw an aircraft away after every flight, it would be an extremely expensive flight, but if you only have to refuel it, it's just the cost of the fuel. That's the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space below the cost of freight on aircraft—easily under $100 a pound. That makes putting large satellites into space very, very cheap.

埃隆?馬斯克：是的，它不僅會用于火星、月球探索，還會承擔大規模的衛星發射任務。我們希望今年能實現 “星艦” 的完全可回收利用，這將是一項劃時代的發明：一旦實現完全回收，太空探索的成本將降低 99%。這就像可回收飛機和一次性飛機的成本差距 —— 如果每次飛行后都要丟棄飛機，那飛行成本會高得離譜，而如果只是加油再利用，成本就只剩燃油費。這一核心突破，會讓太空運輸的成本低于飛機貨運，輕松實現每磅貨物運輸成本低于 100 美元，也會讓大型衛星的發射變得極其低廉。

埃隆?馬斯克：And when you have solar power in space, you get about five times more efficiency than solar on the ground—maybe even more. Because it's always sunny in space, right? No day-night cycle, no seasonality, no weather. And you get about 30 percent more power because there's no atmospheric attenuation. The net effect is that any given solar panel will produce five times more energy in space than on the ground.

埃隆?馬斯克：而且太空太陽能的利用效率，比地面太陽能高出約 5 倍，甚至更多。因為在太空中，陽光是持續不斷的，沒有晝夜交替，沒有季節變化，也沒有天氣影響，再加上沒有大氣層的遮擋，太陽能的利用效率還能再提升 30%。最終的結果就是，同一塊太陽能電池板，在太空中的發電量是地面的 5 倍。

主持人：Is there any capacity to take that power and bring it back to Earth, or are you just taking that power and utilizing it for space-based needs, like building AI data centers in space?

主持人：那這些太空產生的電力，能否傳輸回地球？還是說，這些電力會直接用于太空領域，比如在太空中建設人工智能數據中心？

埃隆?馬斯克：I think it's a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space. Because space is very cold—if you're in the shadow, it's 3 degrees Kelvin. So you just have solar panels facing the sun, and a radiator pointed away from the sun with no solar incidence, and it's just passive cooling—a very efficient cooling system. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space, and that'll be true within two years, maybe three at the latest.

埃隆?馬斯克：在太空中建設太陽能人工智能數據中心，顯然是明智之選。因為太空的溫度極低，在背陰處，溫度僅為 3 開爾文（約 - 270℃）。我們只需讓太陽能電池板朝向太陽，再搭配一個背向太陽的散熱器，就能實現無源冷卻，冷卻效率極高。所以未來，建設人工智能數據中心的成本洼地會是太空，這一點在未來 2 到 3 年內就會成為現實。

主持人：Looking 10 or 20 years out, how would you describe success for AI or space technology? And what do you see coming? Are you more certain about what's going to happen in the next three years, five years, or 10 years?

主持人：展望未來 10 到 20 年，你認為人工智能和航天技術的成功標志是什么？未來會有哪些發展？你對未來 3 年、5 年、10 年的發展，哪一個階段更有把握？

埃隆?馬斯克：I don't know what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing—we might have AI that is smarter than any single human by the end of this year, no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031—about five years from now—AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.

埃隆?馬斯克：我無法預測 10 年后的事，但人工智能的發展速度超乎想象 —— 今年年底前，我們或許就能擁有比任何一個人類都聰明的人工智能，最晚不會超過明年。而到 2030 或 2031 年，也就是約 5 年后，人工智能的整體智慧，將超越全人類的總和。

主持人：We only have a few minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second, so there's no speculation that you're a piece of Greenland, right? I want to frame this question by saying: you're the most successful entrepreneur and industrialist of the 21st century, maybe ever. What inspired you? Who inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity? And importantly, was there an aha moment, an epiphany, at any time in your life or career?

主持人：我們的時間不多了，最后我想讓大家看到一個更真實的你，打破 “你是格陵蘭一小塊碎片” 的玩笑式猜測。我想這樣問你：你是 21 世紀，甚至人類歷史上最成功的企業家和實業家，是什么激勵著你？哪些人對你產生了影響？你的好奇心，根源是什么？還有一個重要的問題，在你的人生和職業生涯中，是否有過頓悟的時刻？

埃隆?馬斯克：Well, as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, fantasy books, and comic books. I was always fascinated by technology. I didn't expect to be where I am today—it seemed incredibly implausible. But I was inspired by reading books about the future, about science fiction, and I guess I wanted to make science fiction not fiction forever—to turn science fiction into science fact. We want to have Starfleet and Star Trek for real: giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, other star systems. I'd love to be beamed back to New York instead of flying, you know.

埃隆?馬斯克：小時候，我讀了很多科幻、奇幻小說和漫畫，一直對科技充滿癡迷。我從未想過自己能走到今天，這在當初看來幾乎是不可能的。但那些關于未來、關于科幻的書籍，深深激勵了我。我想做的，就是讓科幻不再只是幻想，而是變成現實。我希望《星際迷航》中的星際艦隊能成為現實：巨型宇宙飛船穿梭在太空，抵達其他行星、其他恒星系統；我也希望能像劇中一樣，瞬間傳送到紐約，而不是坐飛機。

埃隆?馬斯克：Star Trek is really the core of my philosophy of curiosity. I'd like to understand the meaning of life: is the standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of existence and the end of the universe? What questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? AI will help us with these things. So I'm just trying to figure out how do we get here, what's going on, what's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are. If we have spaceships traveling to other star systems, we may encounter aliens, and we may find many long-dead alien civilizations. But I just want to know what's going on—I'm curious about the universe. That's my philosophy.

埃隆?馬斯克：《星際迷航》所傳遞的探索精神，正是我核心的人生信條。我想弄明白生命的意義：關于宇宙的誕生和終結，物理學的標準模型是否正確？我們還有哪些該問卻沒問的問題？而人工智能，會幫助我們找到答案。我只是想弄清楚，我們從何而來，當下正發生什么，什么才是真實的？宇宙中有外星人嗎？或許有。如果我們的飛船能抵達其他恒星系統，或許能遇見外星人，也可能發現許多早已消亡的外星文明。我只是想探索真相，因為我對宇宙充滿好奇，這就是我的人生哲學。

主持人：Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?

主持人：你認為自己有生之年能登上火星嗎？

埃隆?馬斯克：Yeah. I've been asked how long the trip is—it's six months each way, right? The planets only align every two years. I've been asked a few times if I want to die on Mars, and I'm like, yes—but just not on impact.

埃隆?馬斯克：當然。總有人問我火星之旅需要多久，單程大約 6 個月，對吧？而且火星和地球的會合周期是兩年一次。也有人問我，是否愿意死在火星上，我的答案是愿意 —— 但前提是，不要在登陸時墜毀。

主持人：That's a good answer. Anyway, we're out of time. I hope everybody enjoyed this. There are so many myths around Elon Musk, and I can tell you he's a great friend. I constantly learn so much from him, and I'm totally inspired by what he has done, who he is, and his vision of the future. I don't think it's such a bad future, and I agree with his optimism. So Elon, thank you. Any last words?

主持人：這個答案應該還不錯。好了，我們的對話時間到了。希望大家能喜歡今天的交流。關于埃隆?馬斯克，外界有很多不實傳言，但我可以告訴大家，他是一位非常好的朋友。我總能從他身上學到很多，他的成就、他的為人、他對未來的愿景，都讓我深受鼓舞。我認為他描繪的未來，并不可怕，而且我完全認同他的樂觀態度。埃隆，謝謝你。最后還有什么想對大家說的嗎？

埃隆?馬斯克：Well, I think generally, my last words would be: I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. And for quality of life, it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong, rather than a pessimist and right.

埃隆?馬斯克：我想對大家說的是：希望所有人都能對未來保持樂觀和期待。而且從生活質量的角度來說，寧做樂觀的失敗者，不做悲觀的成功者。

THE END