無論如何，最糟糕的時間已經過去.. 260414

注：本文原發于跨資產星球北京時間4月12日的內容，截止今天，全球市場股市均接近與創出新高。部分內容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

X@Ariston Wang: https://x.com/ariston_macro?s=21

一、我對伊朗的看法，為什么交易注定達成，雖然結果同樣注定無法回到開戰前 / My view on Iran: why a deal is destined to be reached, even though the outcome is equally destined not to return to the pre-war state

在美以談判結果出來之前，星球連發了三條帖子，內容如下，這部分是我對伊朗戰爭以來各類事件與新聞結果的看法框架，回答了為什么只要政權顛覆這條路徑不存在，交易就一定會最終達成的這一問題。事實上，在外事機構的培訓里，所謂談判，所有官員會和你說到的第一個要求就是，談判的一切，均在與結果的產出。

Before the result of the U.S.-Israel negotiations came out, I posted three consecutive messages in the Planet. The content is reproduced below. This section lays out my framework for thinking about the various events and news developments since the Iran war, and it answers why, so long as regime overthrow is not on the table, a deal must eventually be reached. In diplomatic training, the very first requirement officials will tell you about negotiation is that everything in a negotiation is ultimately about producing an outcome.

可以不談判，但談判進程一旦開啟，無論如何都是一個必須要有結果的事情，在流血地緣事件中尤其。換句話說，在一切開始之初，結果的產出就已經是必然的，區別只在于談判利益劃分如何，但無論怎樣，談判一旦開啟，最糟糕的惡性情景就已經不再可能長期持續：

You may choose not to negotiate, but once a negotiation process begins, it becomes something that must produce a result one way or another, especially in a bloody geopolitical event. In other words, from the very beginning, the production of an outcome is already inevitable. The only difference lies in how the benefits are divided in the negotiation. But whatever the split, once negotiation begins, the worst malignant scenario is no longer able to persist for long:

伊朗不是其人民所屬的伊朗，而是其統治的宗教領袖集團所屬的伊朗。因此，分析不能從公眾的視角來框架。領導層專注于兩件事：維護公眾觀感，以及保護其自身的根本利益。

Iran does not belong to its people; it belongs to the clerical leadership group that rules it. Therefore, analysis cannot be framed from the public's perspective. The leadership is focused on two things: maintaining public optics and protecting its own core interests.

這就是為什么伊朗戰爭不同于越南戰爭。其核心歸結為一點：美國實際上已經放棄了政權更迭。剩下的就是與繼任者達成一套新的利益安排，以一種既保全面子又尊重宗教情感的方式。只需看看那十項要求的時機，就可以清楚地看出這一點。它們正是在阿里·哈梅內伊的宗教哀悼期結束時提出的，一天也不晚。歸根結底，這一切都關乎金錢。統治集團只是在為新秩序中爭取更大份額。別想多了。

This is why the Iran war is different from the Vietnam War. The core point comes down to one thing: the United States has in practice already given up on regime change. What remains is to reach a new arrangement of interests with the successor structure in a way that preserves face and respects religious sensitivities. Just look at the timing of those ten demands and the point becomes obvious. They were put forward exactly when Ali Khamenei's period of religious mourning ended, not a day later. In the end, all of this is about money. The ruling group is simply bargaining for a larger share in the new order. Do not overthink it

提出要約、還價，并達成交易。交易就是交易。那些認為系統過于復雜的人，其實并不真正理解權力的運作方式。只要有一個明確定義的統治集團，就能夠達成交易。從歷史上看，長期戰爭往往出現在地理國家內部不存在單一、連貫的統治權威的地方。

Make an offer, bargain, and get a deal done. A deal is a deal. People who think the system is too complicated do not actually understand how power works. As long as there is a clearly defined ruling group, a deal can be made. Historically, prolonged wars often emerge in places where there is no single, coherent ruling authority within the geographic state.

二、市場的定價：匯市 / Market Pricing: FX

截至周線收盤，市場基本保留了停火驅動的漲幅：

As of the weekly close, the market had largely retained the ceasefire-driven gains:

圖：停火驅動的定價截至收盤被加以保留

鑒于我們的根本判定框架（見上文），市場在未來三到六周對霍爾木茲局勢邊際緩和和滯脹定價的回吐是期望最高的可能路徑，但由于美伊在核問題上仍未達成一致，尾部風險并未消失，所以，兩個自然而然的判斷是：1）組合層面不再適合維持大規模防御，2）應轉向縮小倉位但偏多風險方向的交易框架。

Given our core judgment framework above, the most likely path over the next three to six weeks is for the market to price in marginal easing around the Strait of Hormuz while partially unwinding stagflation pricing. But because the U.S. and Iran still have not reached agreement on the nuclear issue, tail risks have not disappeared. That leads naturally to two judgments: 1) at the portfolio level it no longer makes sense to maintain large-scale defensiveness, and 2) the framework should shift toward smaller position sizes but with a risk-on bias.

圖：美元指數（四小時圖，截至 260412）

在這種情況下，廣義美元多頭的性價比開始下降，在我們強調被動或主動的了結此前匯市做多的大部分倉位后，美元已經一路下行至今，不僅跳空跌破了自3月初以來的上行紅線，更是重返了98.8的震蕩區間上沿，這里開始，紅線將成為強勁阻力線，我們對美元的觀點由強多頭轉為無趨勢震蕩。

In that environment, the risk-reward of broad dollar longs is starting to deteriorate. After we emphasized either passive or active profit-taking on most of our prior FX longs, the dollar has kept falling all the way to now. It not only gapped below the upward-sloping red line that had held since early March, but also returned to the upper bound of the 98.8 trading range. From here, that red line becomes strong resistance. Our dollar view therefore shifts from strong bullishness to trendless range trading.

如果美國股市相對全球其他市場走弱，可能會重燃此前長期資金重新思考美元資產配置權重的行動，提高 FX hedge ratio，甚至帶來資金回流本幣市場...

If U.S. equities weaken relative to other global markets, that could revive the longer-term rethinking by institutional capital over the weighting of dollar assets, raising FX hedge ratios and even bringing capital back into local-currency markets...

圖：事實是 US equities 的確 haven’t performed as well versus Rest of World as one might expect during a cyclical macro shock

續接上文，停火之后，匯率表現已經不再像3月那樣主要由相對貿易條件驅動，而更多受到 risk premium compression影響，最典型的證據是 NOK，其在油價回落的當周仍然是最強 G10 之一，說明資金并不是機械按油價和貿易條件交易，而是主動壓縮地緣風險溢價：

Continuing from above, after the ceasefire, FX performance is no longer driven mainly by relative terms of trade as it was in March, but more by risk-premium compression. The clearest evidence is NOK: even in the same week that oil prices fell, it still ranked among the strongest G10 currencies. That shows capital is not trading mechanically off oil prices and terms of trade, but is actively compressing geopolitical risk premia:

圖：NOK（日線圖，截至 260412）

如果交易框架繼續從“避險對沖”切到“交易局勢緩和下的風險修復”，那么EUR/AUD的交易對會成為資金的主要代理對象，邏輯是，在局勢邊際緩和下，AUD 能更直接承接廣義高beta 反彈，而 EUR 彈性不足，所以 short EUR/AUD 比繼續拿 AUD vs SEK/GBP 會更純粹：

If the trading framework keeps shifting from "safe-haven hedge" to "risk repair under easing tensions," then EUR/AUD will become a key proxy for capital. The logic is that under marginal easing, AUD can absorb the broader high-beta rebound more directly, while EUR lacks that kind of elasticity. So short EUR/AUD is a purer expression than continuing to hold AUD versus SEK or GBP:

圖：EURAUD（日線圖，截至 260412）

最后，突破黃線，我們對SEK的做多已經開始：

Finally, after breaking above the yellow line, our long SEK position has now begun:

圖：SEK 疊加 CL（日線圖，截至 260412）

邏輯詳見此前Notes，這是一個我們已經盯了一個多月的風險退散的交易對象。

The logic is explained in earlier Notes. This is a risk-release trade we have been watching for more than a month.

三、市場的定價：股市（人民幣進入#3與中國股指）/Market Pricing: Equities （RMB entersand China indices）

人民幣美元同步跳入#3階段，這一階段的定位是雙向波動但緩慢升值，在保住匯率穩定和出口增長的前提下為本幣資產繼續做多頭基礎，這意味著只要人民幣兌美元其仍然運行在兩條藍線夾住的#3區域，整個內地市場股指就不會出現大幅下挫，只可能走1）穩定上行，2）區間震蕩兩種路徑：

RMB and the dollar have both moved into phase #3. This phase is defined as two-way fluctuation but gradual appreciation, preserving exchange-rate stability and export growth while continuing to provide a bullish foundation for domestic-currency assets. That means as long as RMB/USD remains inside the #3 zone bounded by the two blue lines, mainland equity indices are unlikely to suffer a sharp drop. The likely paths are only: 1) stable upward movement, or 2) range-bound trading:

圖：人民幣兌美元（日線圖，截至 260412）進入#2 后的#3 升值區域

滬指，在 200 日年線上方獲得支撐，后續預期是在3800-4200的金線區間內沿年線震蕩式上行，其將仍然由科技+資源兩條主要硬資產線路（定義詳見此前Notes）引領：

The Shanghai Composite has found support above the 200-day moving average. The expectation going forward is a grind higher along the moving average within the 3800-4200 gold-lined range, still led by the two main hard-asset lines of technology plus resources, as previously defined in the Notes...

深指，同樣，但可能會率先突破上沿金線...

The Shenzhen index is similar, but it may break above the upper gold line first...

完整內容訂閱鏈接：https://t.zsxq.com/i90xY

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