大洋馬夫“國際加油站”第8期：正確認(rèn)識朝鮮，一比一的情況下，朝鮮可以吊打日本和韓國

中俄朝三國的關(guān)系很微妙，既是好朋友，又沒有像西方那樣亂搞結(jié)盟關(guān)系。當(dāng)然、最主要是中國在其中發(fā)揮著主要的決定性作用。中俄朝三國都是有一定實(shí)力的軍事大國。可能會有人產(chǎn)生疑問，中俄自不必說，朝鮮怎能算作軍事大國？那我們就扒拉扒拉：

朝鮮其實(shí)是一個(gè)名副其實(shí)的軍事大國，朝鮮的陸軍現(xiàn)役總兵力達(dá)到了120萬余人，在全世界排名第4位，超過了英、法、德三國陸軍總和。陸軍核心力量是5800余輛坦克（其中3000余輛可立即隨時(shí)投入戰(zhàn)斗），可謂是又一個(gè)版本的“鋼鐵洪流”，這樣的實(shí)力就已經(jīng)很強(qiáng)了。朝鮮海軍艦艇數(shù)量超過800艘（卻是“小艦扛大炮” 的非對稱王者），空軍擁有400余架戰(zhàn)機(jī)，包括性能優(yōu)越的米格-29。最令西方國家睡不著覺的是朝鮮是一個(gè)擁有核彈和洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈的國家，這可是戰(zhàn)略威懾的“終極底牌”。別忘了，還有一個(gè)尤為突出的地方是，朝鮮是在極端制裁的條件下，以“先軍政治”為導(dǎo)向，實(shí)現(xiàn)了“軍工自主”并在緊急狀態(tài)下展現(xiàn)出驚人的動員速度：24小時(shí)內(nèi)可征召80萬兵員，48小時(shí)能集結(jié)140萬部隊(duì)，理論最大動員能力達(dá)800萬人（占全國人口1/3）。這些足以碾壓韓國、吊打日本。

如果僅僅以日本或韓國單個(gè)國家的軍事力量與朝鮮“一比一”對打的話，朝鮮完勝日韓（在沒有美國幫助的情況下）。朝鮮是一個(gè)不容忽視的存在。不要被西方國家的各種軍事排名給“忽悠瘸了”，這些排名中朝鮮的名次總是很低，但實(shí)力就是實(shí)力，西方的排名不過是“數(shù)字游戲”，甚至是“自慰”的噱頭罷了，但真正實(shí)力和死亡威懾才是“生存真理”。而且朝鮮有時(shí)候帶著愣頭青或者二楞頭的性格（西方國家污蔑為魯莽），有點(diǎn)和俄羅斯相似，關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻人家敢出手，敢揍人，所以這就是美國現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)特朗普先生很欣賞朝鮮，但韓國和日本很害怕朝鮮的地方。

中國不結(jié)盟，不代表沒有朋友；敵人的敵人就是朋友，估計(jì)西方國家忘記了他們認(rèn)為的這條所謂“真理”。因此，中俄朝三國的關(guān)系穩(wěn)定，又以鄰居和朋友的身份互相走動得相對平穩(wěn)有力，對美日韓這三個(gè)所謂的盟友國家能夠起到強(qiáng)有力的牽制作用，也在一定程度上為我們的贏得更多的或者更充分的發(fā)展時(shí)間和發(fā)展空間。必要的時(shí)候，在一定程度上、我們樂見在朝鮮能夠把美日韓給整一整，或者直接把日本或者韓國給揪出來，暴打一頓的。

（以下是英文版 The next is English edtion）

The "Globa Refuel" Episode 8 : Correctly Understanding North Korea—In a One-on-One Scenario, North Korea Can Overwhelm Japan and South Korea

(Monday Afternoon, December 15, 2025)

The relationship between China, Russia, and North Korea is nuanced: they are good friends but avoid messy alliance-building like the West. Of course, China plays the primary and decisive role in this dynamic. All three nations possess considerable military strength. Some may question this: while China and Russia are undeniably powerful, how can North Korea be considered a military powerhouse? Let’s break it down:

North Korea is, in fact, a bona fide military powerhouse. Its active-duty army boasts over 1.2 million personnel, ranking fourth globally and surpassing the combined armies of the UK, France, and Germany. The core of its army lies in its more than 5,800 tanks (with over 3,000 ready for immediate deployment), constituting another version of an "iron torrent"—a formidable force in itself. The North Korean navy operates over 800 vessels (though they are "small ships with big guns," making them asymmetric powerhouses), while the air force possesses more than 400 fighter jets, including the advanced MiG-29. What keeps Western nations up at night is North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles—the ultimate trump cards of strategic deterrence. It’s also worth noting that North Korea has achieved "military-industrial autonomy" under extreme sanctions, guided by its "military-first" policy. It demonstrates remarkable mobilization speed in emergencies: 800,000 troops can be conscripted within 24 hours, 1.4 million troops assembled within 48 hours, and a theoretical maximum mobilization capacity of 8 million (one-third of its population). This is more than enough to overpower South Korea and overwhelm Japan.

In a hypothetical one-on-one military confrontation between North Korea and either Japan or South Korea, North Korea would emerge victorious (assuming no U.S. assistance). North Korea is a force that cannot be ignored. Don’t be misled by Western military rankings, which consistently place North Korea low on the list. Strength is strength—Western rankings are merely "number games" or even self-serving gimmicks. True power and the threat of destruction are the "truths of survival." Moreover, North Korea, somewhat like Russia, occasionally displays a reckless or defiant demeanor (often dismissed as rash by Western nations), showing a willingness to act and strike when necessary. This is why U.S. President Donald Trump admires North Korea, while South Korea and Japan fear it.

China’s non-alignment does not mean it lacks friends. The enemy of my enemy is my friend—a so-called "truth" Western nations seem to have forgotten. Therefore, the stable relationship among China, Russia, and North Korea, maintained through neighborly and friendly interactions, serves as a powerful check on the so-called alliance of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. It also, to some extent, buys us more time and space for development. When necessary, we would not mind seeing North Korea challenge or even take on Japan or South Korea, delivering a decisive blow.