大洋馬夫“國際加油站”第25期：中美俄的“大三國演義”這樣玩兒——用中俄的“南北朝并立”來實現中美的“東西方平衡”

美國公開對委內瑞拉、哥倫比亞、丹麥的“格陵蘭島”等國家和地區提出了具體的領土要求，這標志著全球自此重新進入了以強凌弱、以大欺小的叢林法則時代。那么、作為全球的三大國（可謂是全球的“三巨頭”）之一的我們該如何進行所謂的“大三國演義”呢？

總的來說，穩住俄羅斯這頭“北極熊”與我們保持“南北朝并立”的大局面，穩定北方之大局，這是根本。其次，安定朝鮮半島、中南半島、東南亞、中亞、中東等一眾“小弟”不出事兒，整合全球南方國家一起維護世界和平與發展。同時，還得揪出日本這個愛挑事兒的奴才作為重點打擊對象，狠打狠揍不手軟，樹立威嚴和權威，讓美西方敢怒而不敢言。從而和美西方國家保持全球的“東西方”戰略平衡。在悶聲發大財中全面、系統的超越西方。

具體而言，在一定程度上來說，目前的我們還需要美國這個免費的“全球導師”對我們免費主動的提供某種“監督”（也是某種“補短”）。保持與美國的戰略平衡是符合我們目前階段的國情發展需求的，因此，美國這個“戰略競爭對手”是可以用來平衡的！但是，俄羅斯這頭“北極熊”是不能夠得罪的，相反、與俄羅斯處好關系對于我們來說，利遠遠大于弊的。而我們唯一一個可以用來敲打的就是日本這個奴才了，無論是從天時、地利、人和，還是從天道、法理、人情等方面都是站得住腳的；相反，敲打或者暴揍日本，會贏來一片國際贊譽的。

一言以蔽之，中美俄的“大三國演義”中，尤其是在目前的歐洲和中東存在戰事的情形下，我們不能夠“受傷”，俄羅斯不能倒也不能輸，美國不能贏也不能垮，世界秩序不能崩也不能亂。因為我們還需要時間，也需要騰挪的“空間”。我們最好的方式就是在一定程度上保持與俄羅斯的“南北朝并立”的關聯關系，從而焊牢我們與美西方的“東西方平衡”。至少目前是最優解。

（以下是英文版 The next is English edition）

Global Refuel Station,Issue 25: How to Play the "Great Power Triangle" Among China, the US, and Russia – Using Sino-Russian "Coexistence Like Northern and Southern Dynasties" to Achieve Sino-US "East-West Balance"

(Afternoon, January 12, 2026)

The United States has publicly made specific territorial claims against Venezuela, Colombia, and regions like Greenland (Denmark), marking the global re-entry into an era of jungle law where the strong bully the weak and the big oppress the small. So, as one of the world's three great powers (arguably the global "big three"), how should we conduct the so-called "great power triangle" game?

Overall, the fundamental task is to stabilize Russia, this "Polar Bear," and maintain with it the grand situation of "coexistence like Northern and Southern Dynasties," thereby securing the overall stability of our northern flank. Secondly, we must ensure that a host of "younger brothers" – the Korean Peninsula, the Indochina Peninsula, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, etc. – do not run into trouble, and integrate Global South countries to jointly safeguard world peace and development. Simultaneously, we must single out Japan, that trouble-making vassal, as a key target for strike, striking hard and relentlessly to establish authority and prestige, making the US-led West dare to be angry but not to speak out. This allows us to maintain a global "East-West" strategic balance with Western nations, comprehensively and systematically surpassing the West while quietly amassing strength.

Specifically, to a certain extent, we currently still need the United States, this free "global tutor," to voluntarily provide us with a kind of "supervision" (which also serves as a form of "supplementing shortcomings"). Maintaining strategic balance with the US aligns with the development needs of our national conditions at this stage. Therefore, this "strategic competitor," the US, is useful for balancing! However, Russia, this "Polar Bear," must not be offended. On the contrary, maintaining good relations with Russia brings us far more benefits than drawbacks. The only entity we can use for signaling or coercive actions is Japan, that vassal. Such actions are justifiable whether viewed from the perspectives of timing, geography, popular support, or from the standpoints of cosmic principle, legality, and human sentiment. Conversely, taking action against or decisively striking Japan would garner widespread international acclaim.

In a nutshell, within the "great power triangle" among China, the US, and Russia – especially under the current circumstances of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East – we must not sustain "injuries," Russia must not collapse or lose, the US must not win or crumble, and the world order must not break down or descend into chaos. Because we still need time and also require maneuvering "space." Our optimal approach is to maintain, to a certain extent, a relationship of "coexistence like Northern and Southern Dynasties" with Russia, thereby solidifying our "East-West balance" with the US-led West. At least for now, this is the optimal solution.

大洋馬夫

律師,歷史領域愛好者

15073篇原創